Markets rolling today. talk of dry weather in argentina. that’s all it takes today. No real long term problem, just a forecast. the funds really push this around. Anyway, this is presenting a long term opportunity. Lets look at some facts. The domestic export numbers are well behind estimates. The usda is probably over stating by 75-100 million bu. That …
Macro Ag Commentary
The Bean market may be due a bounce after the recent weakness. ? why ? the weather in Argentina is turning a bit dry in the forecast. That is correct the forecast. The market seems to want to dial bullish scenarios in much quicker. I don’t know for sure this will be the case. Just thinking out loud. Lets look …
Ag Commentary
The complex came under pressure today actually led by soy oil. However all three, the beans, meal and oil felt the selling. The weather in South America looks good for planting and for early production prospects. The argentine crop will need some moisture come December. There remains plenty of time at present. Given the talk of a productive start thoughts …
Ag Outlook
The market posted moderate gains today. Typical perhaps for a Friday. The USDA report puts to rest question regarding yield. The next question is the south American crop size. The weather in Brazil is good but has some difficulty. The Argentinian weather looks good. The prospects are in place, now volatility begins. There are a couple major possible moves in …
Ag Outlook
USDA report in the rear view mirror now. There were no surprises, but some important aspects. The yield was as expected, unchanged. Carry drops 5 million to 425. This is important that we stay above 400 million. The next question is will the US export figure remain 2250. The answer is determined by the south American crop. It is my …
Ag Overview
The markets are awaiting the USDA report on Thursday. Perhaps it remains quiet until then. Where do we go from here ? My observations are that most think the corn will go lower based on a increase in yield. Most think the bean crop is drawing down due to late yield reports that show a decline. It is my belief …
Todays action, Pre USDA thurs.
Good Afternoon, As we near this week’s USDA here is a look early in the week. Back month beans look much more constructive than the Nov contract as we await the end of harvest. I like wheat last week and now we are putting in the head and shoulder bottom, see 447 7/8th’s trendline. Wheat also enclosed looks …
Ag Outlook
The market broke today after a bit of strength through the week. The USDA report next Thursday will be the next driving force. The private estimates this week continue to confirm a reasonable yield expectation. There really should be nomajor surprises. I believe the bulls have a hard road in the beans. The dollar strength of late. The currency moves …
Major Mkts- Conditions, Olive set, let’s go.
Dec Cattle- this am we had an OLS play right up at limit. If you were a pit trader and came in flat this would have been a sell at limit early and put in a buy stop back at limit up. This is a spec algo trade and we could break hard today like yesterday. Someone blew out big …
Ag Outlook
The markets continue to advance on a tech look at the market. In my opinion the soy complex has separated itself from the cash fundamentals. The USDA report is in front of us. The private estimates (Informa, and Stone) released over the last two days have confirmed the recent production numbers. The USDA has no real incentive to make any major changes …