Markets rolling today. talk of dry weather in argentina. that’s all it takes today. No real long term problem, just a forecast. the funds really push this around. Anyway, this is presenting a long term opportunity. Lets look at some facts. The domestic export numbers are well behind estimates. The usda is probably over stating by 75-100 million bu. That would put the carry at 500 million. The Brazilian acres are most likely understated due to corn acres declining. The global carry is up 20-24 million tons over 2 years. The global stocks are 98-100 mln tons,and without a weather problem somewhere growing. In addition the whole global oilseed scenario is 113 mln tons ending stocks. This is a record, and growing. There is a point where the fundamentals of a market come to pass. I cant predict exactly when, but it is the reality. Producers need to use these rallies to update old crop sales, and start or add to 2018,2019 sales. It is my belief the outsized 5 year growth in meal production, and the availability of alt protein sources will affect the market in a negative way over the next 6 months.
Quantify the risk as it is always present
Be Well