Grain Spreads: Wait Until August

Sean Lusk General Commentary Leave a Comment

I don’t know what was more surprising, the 4.5 million cut in soybean plantings or the 4.7 million acre increase in corn seedings ? Take your pick but for me its corn by a nose. Remember it was only two weeks ago that the USDA was much more aggressive in altering US corn production, and took an ax to both …

Sharp Reactions May Happen! Be Prepared!

Steve Bruce General Commentary Leave a Comment

                                Regardless  of whether you believe the acreage figures it is what we have to trade. Until the August crop reports for corn and beans with production estimates  based on field surveys which the USDA has allegedly tweaked in prior years to adjust for questionable acreage estimates , this is the figure we’ll trade. The USDA will issue a fresh …

Be Prepared!

Steve Bruce General Commentary Leave a Comment

                                The USDA reports out at 11 Chicago time tomorrow are taking center stage yet, the trade is unsure about the accuracy of the figures as planting has been a moving target all month!  Taking inventory with Stocks might be a little easier and the trade might take those figures as more believable.  The average guesses for tomorrow’s reports are …

Livestock Report

Ben DiCostanzo General Commentary Leave a Comment

   The August Lean Hogs contract continued its consolidation within Monday’s trading range. The high was 77.00 and the low 74.525. It settled at 75.475. A failure from settlement could see the 74.25 support level revisited. This is also the Tuesday low. A failure from here could see price approach the 72.80 support level.  If settlement holds then a test …

Grain spreads: Consolidation

Sean Lusk General Commentary Leave a Comment

A warmer dryer outlook in the next few weeks has given some reasons for profit taking in corn. Its also month and quarter end Friday ahead of a important crop report Friday at 11 am. Lots of moving parts here with First notice day for the July contract on Friday as well. Yield loss looks sizable for corn with some …

Livestock Report

Ben DiCostanzo General Commentary Leave a Comment

The August Lean Hogs contract consolidated within Monday’s trading range. It settled right at the 76.175 resistance level.  A failure from settlement could see the 74.25 support level revisited. This is also the Tuesday low. A failure from here could see price approach the 72.80 support level.  If settlement holds then a test of resistance at 77.80 is possible. Resistance …

SOY

John Walsh General Commentary Leave a Comment

The soy has alot to deal with. Looking at the macro. The acreage is a question. However a 2-3 million acre loss does little to change the global balance sheet. The beans are bearish. The Chinese remain slow to the table. Exports remain overstated. There are current sales that will most likely get rolled forward. With or without a trade …

FEEDGRAINS

John Walsh General Commentary Leave a Comment

There are many concerns given the late plantings. The corn has dialed much of the weather issues in for the moment. There is still potentially more upside. However perhaps it is time to retrace and find support. Why? Assume 6-7 million acres lost. Assume a less than trend yield. This could give us a 1.1-1.3 billion bu carry. Now consider …

Hovering?

Steve Bruce General Commentary Leave a Comment

                                A bull market needs to get fed every day. This year we’ve problems with planting and the lack of growing degree units and the length of our growing season is critical. But, if the NWS forecast of warmer and slightly wetter than normal conditions prevails it might be a little difficult for the market to rally. That said, there …

Livestock Report

Ben DiCostanzo General Commentary Leave a Comment

   The August Lean Hogs contract was under tremendous selling pressure on Monday. It was expanded limits day for hogs and sellers took advantage, pressing hogs and taking them down 3.95 from settlement to 73.95. It settled at 74.225. This right at the 74.25 support level. Breaking down below settlement could see price test support at 72.80.  Is settlement holds …