The Bean market may be due a bounce after the recent weakness. ? why ? the weather in Argentina is turning a bit dry in the forecast. That is correct the forecast. The market seems to want to dial bullish scenarios in much quicker. I don’t know for sure this will be the case. Just thinking out loud. Lets look at a few facts. It is no surprise I am Bearish. Not because I have any predisposed lean that way. To the contrary. I would prefer a Bull market. The reality is however, the world is literally swimming in Grains, soybeans, everything. The soybean global carry is huge, approx. 100 million tons and growing. Because of this the US will, will loose market share. The meal market is over supplied globally, thus we see weak cash prices. There is a abundant supply of various sources of protein available. All of this seems lost by something. I personally cant figure it out. On top of the expressed issues, the dollar remains strong and this will not bode well for competitive exports. It is my belief we are entering a bear in the soy that will last for some time. (unless we get a legitamite weather issue). One last thought, given the corn bean ratio,what will we see more of next year. You guessed it folks, BEANS ! lets look at the reality of the market place. use rallies to make sales. next year 2018, and 2019 look rich if carryovers stay here and grow.
Corn may be close to a blow off low befor the spring. Lets look at that tomorrow
Quantify the risk
Be Well