Survival Sans USDA

Steve Bruce General Commentary Leave a Comment

                                                It is first notice day on January beans and products on Monday and we do close early for New Years Eve and will be closed all day on Tuesday……..The new trading year begins on Wednesday and the new Congress convenes on Thursday………………..It’s amazing we survived without the non essential government employees………..some might like a continuation of that situation but, …

March Ten Year Option Strategy

Peter Ori General Commentary Leave a Comment

In my opinion Treasuries are set to potentially move higher. Fundamentals point to lower yields as the Fed backs off the tightening they did through 2018, weak home sales also can potentially slow up the economy, also the Fed will potentially  ease up on quantitative tightening. I am looking for the 10y future to potentially rally toward 124.00 I suggest …

AG TIME – If I Didn’t Know Better

John Walsh General Commentary Leave a Comment

I find much of the market perplexing. There are things that don’t add up, in my humble opinion. The soy complex is so oversupplied. The market has never had a supply like this. Unprecedented. Yet, prices are still high relative to the historic norm. Not my norm. The norm in the market. Based on stocks to usage and carry numbers. …

USDA Uncertainty

Steve Bruce Grains Leave a Comment

                                Sonny Perdue has the USDA working through tomorrow, December 28  and probably next week yet, things may change in early January when we see the transition in  the House of Representatives………………..There is uncertainty over if and when reports are issued given the government slowdown/shutdown and we will be learning as we go…………………………………..The January 11 reports are on the bubble! …

2019 Stocks Might Make a Run For It

Brendan Sears General Commentary, Stocks Leave a Comment

MACRO BACKDROP:   Hope all of my dedicated readers had an awesome Christmas. Now it’s onto the New Year. Nearby contracts in the index futures are the subject here. It looks like the stocks have regained some footing today. The dollar saw some relief as buying spurred in it today as well.  I believe that the so called “Santa Claus …

AG TIME SHUT DOWN

John Walsh General Commentary Leave a Comment

The one thing that can be said of President Trump. He keeps his word. The usual political scenario is inconsistent with his way of doing things. So we go to a shutdown. I dont know if this is important to the AG sector. The beans and soy complex under pressure today. Weather improving in South America. The current prices in …

What If?

Steve Bruce General Commentary Leave a Comment

We close early on Monday and celebrate Christmas on Tuesday…………………………….Merry Christmas!                                 Government services at 70% of normal next week, or not, we’ll still be open and will survive even if we do not get government reports……………Remember that we started to keep tabs on export shipments back in the early 1970’s after we oversold our soybean crop and became an …

Submit/Surrender

Steve Bruce General Commentary Leave a Comment

                                The The world still needs to eat even when facing economic upheaval and uncertainty………………What may be  certain is that our Federal Reserve likes to be in charge………..They made us smell the glove yesterday giving the announcement that rate hikes in the coming year are still in place despite the recent market action which signals a slowdown………………..                                 Grains are …

February Dollar Index Option Strategy

Peter Ori General Commentary Leave a Comment

In my opinion the Dollar Index has the potential to move lower. Equity weakness, Fed slowing(stopping?) rate hikes to only two next year and repatriation going into the new year should all weigh on the Greenback going into year end. March futures on the Dollar Index last at 96.15 as of this writing, can potentially move lower to 95.00 and …

Livestock Report

Ben DiCostanzo General Commentary Leave a Comment

Livestock Markets consolidated today as traders waited for the Fed and its interest rate adjustment and for the upcoming livestock reports. The fed raised rates a quarter percent and indicated 2 more rate hikes for next year. Equity markets didn’t like Chairman Powell’s comments and plunged. With rates moving higher and the potential for more hikes going forward optimism is …