ag thoughts

John Walsh General Commentary Leave a Comment

The oil share surged a bit today. This for two reasons. The fundamental picture remains friendly veg oils at present (IMO) and the excitement over a China trade deal. After the close it was announced that phase one has been reached in principal. Now the two leaders (respectively) need to sign the document. It seems possible some details will be …

Grain Spreads: Second Bull Run

Sean Lusk General Commentary Leave a Comment

Now that the December crop report is behind us with hardly any surprises and virtually no adjustments to US crop sizes, the market goes back to watching trade developments with China, and weather in South America. To me these are the two biggest determinants for price. Recent headlines the last 24 hours showing an unprecedented 1.2 billion bushels of corn …

Livestock Report

Ben DiCostanzo General Commentary Leave a Comment

The February Lean Hogs contract rallied and is back in the middle of its 65.40 – 70.05 trading range. It made its high at 68.375 and settled at 67.975. It settled above the declining 100 DMA (67.34) and right at resistance at 67.90. Comments that President Trump may delay the December 15 deadline for additional tariffs helped spark the rally …

ag thoughts

John Walsh General Commentary Leave a Comment

The USDA report was fairly benign. The global carry was raised 1mmt. This represents a ample scenario at 96.4 mmt. The though I am attempting to convey is the relationship between the products could be the most important of the next six to twelve months. The oil share sits at 34.5%. The global oil stocks are tight by many accounts. …

Livestock Report

Ben DiCostanzo General Commentary Leave a Comment

   The February Lean Hogs contract gap opened higher and rallied early in the trading session as China claims it will waive tariffs on some pork imports from the US. Individual companies will have to apply for a waiver and the Chinese haven’t specified an amount to be exempted. The excitement over the new withered rather quickly as the test …

Grain Spreads: Soy Oil Leads the Way

Sean Lusk General Commentary Leave a Comment

Grain prices firmed in the overnight session that spilled into the morning trade. This push sent corn and wheat slightly higher, while beans rallied 10 cents. However gains were again short lived as corn and wheat went negative and stayed that until going unchanged at the close. Beans finished the day up 5.4 cents and up 13 cents for the …

Livestock Report

Ben DiCostanzo General Commentary Leave a Comment

   The February Lean Hogs contract opened higher and made an early attempt to rally then ran into a brick wall at 69.275. It reversed course and tested the 100 DMA at 67.88 making the session low at 67.90. Hogs remain in a trading range with the high end at 69.875 and the low end at 65.40 as the trade …

Grain Spreads: Old Gaps/Opportunities/3 Trades

Sean Lusk General Commentary Leave a Comment

Jan 2020 soybeans filled in some prior Spring gaps on the daily chart at approximately the 868 level. These have been violated and surpassed a few times since the gaps were previously made so the significance isn’t as important in my view but noted all the same. The 868 level also represents a 50 percent retracement from the highs up …

AG THOUGHTS

John Walsh General Commentary Leave a Comment

The soy complex has perhaps put in a short term low. The trade is aware that some production will remain in the fields. In addition the month of Nov did see a healthy export pace. These facts will tighten the domestic balance sheet a bit and could provide some near term support. The next developments to watch will be what …

Grain Spreads: March 20/Dec 20 Corn

Sean Lusk General Commentary Leave a Comment

Trade deal drama, impeachment inquiries, and a NATO summit dominate the national headlines to start December. In the Midwest, corn harvest continues to plod along. This afternoons data showed 89 percent of the corn crop harvested vs a five year average of 98 percent. Problems continue to plague the Northern Plains and Great Lakes areas. North Dakota is at just …