The market posted moderate gains today. Typical perhaps for a Friday. The USDA report puts to rest question regarding yield. The next question is the south American crop size. The weather in Brazil is good but has some difficulty. The Argentinian weather looks good. The prospects are in place, now volatility begins. There are a couple major possible moves in my opinion. 1) Beans at some point put in a long term high. 2) The oil share may still have a very significant move. The demand for beans and meal has been strong. This demand may have been front loaded especially from China ,over South American weather concerns. If this scenario plays out the oil will take a dominant relative position. A couple other Macro aspects to watch. The dollar remains bid, and I believe will continue to exibit strength. The Real is weak and has pushed more beans into sales because of this. The competition going forward does not favor the US. Look to quantify risk. Rallies present opportunity and sales are advised. If a weather market plays out in SA market could rally. Without the weather problem the world is awash in 100 million tons of beans. Consider this. Next year with corn values this weak relative to beans. Where will acreage be.
Be Well