4/22/24
Today was a great opportunity to sell into strength. Today’s move in the Cattle Markets was another second chance to hedge or put on a short position. In the Soybean Market, it was great opportunity to sell this rally. May’24 Grain Options expire on Friday, and I feel the Soybean Market will break substantially on Monday, 4/29. The Livestock Markets were all higher today, led by the Cattle. June’24 Live Cattle were 2.37 ½ higher today and settled at 178.05. Today’s high was 178.80 and the 1-month high is 183.35. Today’s low was 176.67 ½ and the 1-month low is 170.25. Since 3/22 June’24 Live Cattle is 4.85 lower or over 2 ½%. The Feeders led the way higher today. May’24 Feeder Cattle were 3.17 ½ higher today and settled at 245.17 ½. Today’s high was 246.35 and the 1-month high is 255.92 ½. Today’s low was 243.50, and the 1-month low is 232.62 ½. Since 3/22 May’24 Feeder Cattle are 8.60 lower or almost 3 ½%. The Hogs followed the Cattle higher today. June’24 Lean Hogs were 67 ½ cents higher today and settled at 105.50. Today’s high was 105.92 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week high is 109.65. Today’s low was 104.40 and the 1-month low is 99.20. Since 3/22 June’24 Lean Hogs are 8.80 higher or almost 6%. The Grain Markets were all higher today as well. July’24 Soybeans were 10 ¾ cents higher today and settled at 1176 ½. Today’s high was 1182 ¼ and the 1-month high is 1222 ½. Today’s low was 439 ¾ and the 1-month low is 435 ¾. Since 3/22 July’24 Soybeans are 29 cents lower or almost 1 ½%. The Corn looked strong today. July’24 Corn was 6 ¾ cents higher and settled at 449 ¾. Today’s high was 451 ¼ and the 1-month high is 460. Today’s low was 439 ¾ and the 1-month low is 435 ¾. Since 4/22 July’24 Corn is 2 ¼ cents lower or .5%. The Wheat Market shot higher today. July’24 Wheat was 20 ¾ cents higher today and settled at 587 ½. Today’s high was 595 ¾ and that is also the 1-month high. Today’s low was 565 ½ and the 1-month low is 550. Since 4/22 July’24 Wheat is 18 cents higher or just over 3%. The Cattle Markets rallied today after the Cattle on Feed report last Friday. Placements and marketing were lower than expected, but the feedlots were still full, 1 ½% higher than last year, and the weights were much higher. In addition to that, the USDA on Friday confirmed cow to cow transmission of bird flu, that has been detected in eight states. (I have NOT seen any report of infected beef cattle). The market today had a nice rally and left any negative news behind it. I still feel the Cattle Markets can break back down in the near term, but I am starting to look at the upside six plus months out. My upside targets for June Live Cattle tomorrow are 179.00 and 182.30, and my downside targets are 174.70 and 170.25. My upside targets in May Feeder Cattle are 246.40 and then 274.05. My downside targets are 241. 52 ¾ and then 239.40. In the Hog market my Upside targets are 105.65 and then 106.50, and on the downside 101.21 and then 98.60. The Soybeans rallied today, and I can’t see any discernible reason for it. Planting is going well, and every other indicator is very negative in my opinion. Export sales are awful, and China does not want to buy anything from the U.S.A. The US dollar has been very strong, and the Brazilian Real is down 5% to the Doller in the last month. So, the Brazilian farmer has been selling as much as possible to China, on the cheap. The South American Bean crop will be large, and the ending stocks here are huge. In Argentina there is a Corn stunting disease that could cut the yield by 50%. Farmers there are switching from planting Corn to planting more Soybeans because of the lingering corn disease. I feel there is a Corn rally coming this summer but would still recommend selling into any strength in the Soybean Market. The Wheat Market will still do whatever it wants to. After the recent rally, it looks like it won’t take much for the wheat to shoot straight up again. Expiration for May’24 Grain Options is this Friday. I feel the Soybean Market could have a very substantial move lower on Monday, especially in the July’24 contract. Some of you have seen the trades I recommend putting on now, for that potential move lower. They are short term trades and would be exited before the end of next week. If you are interested in seeing them, let me know. My downside targets for July’24 Soybeans are 1157 ½ and then 1140 ½. My upside targets for Soybeans don’t exist. For July’24 Corn my upside targets are 452 ¼ and then 454, and my downside targets are 445 and then 440 ½. In the Wheat market my upside target for July’24 is 592 ½ and on the downside 572 ½. In my opinion the 52-week low in July’24 Soybeans of 1140 ½ is in jeopardy of being replaced, and a $10 handle is on the horizon.
-Bill
I have market commentary and option charts in
Pure Hedge – Livestock
Pure Hedge – Grain
Call for specific trade recommendations.
Email me for free research.
Bill Allen
Senior Account Executive
Direct: 1 312 957 8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
53 West Jackson Boulevard, Suite 750
Chicago, Illinois 60604
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.