AG THOUGHTS

John Walsh General Commentary Leave a Comment

This is a article written from the perspective of someone who is questioning certain aspects of the market. Not offered as fact, Rather pondering. The Soy complex is in a interesting global period. However, can someone explain how the meal remains historically high relative to oil when 1) there is a over supply of protein in the world 2) The …

Livestock Report

Ben DiCostanzo General Commentary Leave a Comment

   The December Lean Hogs opened lower and tested yesterday’s 63.45 low, making the Wednesday low just above it at 63.50. Then in usual recent Hog fashion, it reversed course and raced higher, reversing yesterday’s reversal of Mondays rally. Huh??? Well, Hogs have been volatile; weighing massive US production vs the ASF in Europe and especially Asia (expect huge exports). …

Feeling Cautiously Bullish on 2020 Beans?

Timothy Brace General Commentary, Grains Leave a Comment

With a cautious but bullish sentiment for next year’s soybean crop, irrespective of fees, a “zero-cost,” hedging strategy is achievable which allows for 25 cents of upside profit potential from the current futures price , with protection on the downside just 15 cents lower. This strategy is possible due to the implied volatility skew to the upside common in grain …

Livestock Report

Ben DiCostanzo General Commentary Leave a Comment

   The December Lean Hogs traded higher after holding support at 64.25 making the low just below it at 64.125. It traded to the high at 66.00, settling just below it at 65.65. It formed an inside candlestick, consolidating within Friday’s range. It stalled below resistance at 66.55 and the 50 DMA at 66.50. A rally above resistance could see …

corn thoughts

John Walsh General Commentary Leave a Comment

The corn has eased over the last week. There are various reasons for this including the fact the US has not been the cheapest global supplier. Being cheap does help in the export arena. For those interested in the fundamentals. Having said that, perhaps we are close to a bottom that could be driven by upcoming fundamentals. This may seem …

A TALE OF TWO CITIES

John Walsh General Commentary Leave a Comment

Im finding relativity in my literary titles. I guess a bit of humor related to the AG markets. There are two thoughts I have regarding feedgrains,but corn most particularly. The bearish side of corn in my opinion is well known. The US has had a ample amount of corn available. Although the basis has been strong counter seasonally. The global …

the good,the bad,the ugly,

John Walsh General Commentary Leave a Comment

The soy complex is fighting on many fronts. The good in the market at present is that the domestic carry has fallen to a more reasonable level. What happens going forward will dictate if we have a 300 carry or a 500 carry. This is important because the market is probably in a range if we stay around 400-450 mil …

Livestock Report

Ben DiCostanzo General Commentary Leave a Comment

   The December Lean Hogs gap opened lower (64.75) and broke down past the 64.25 support level making the session low at 64.15. Futures recovered and closed the gap Yesterday low – 65.20) on its way to the 66.55 resistance level. It topped at 66.975 and fell back, settling at 65.825. If December Hogs can rebound on Thursday and take …

Grain Spreads: Take the Collection in KC Wheat

Sean Lusk General Commentary Leave a Comment

For weeks I have been advocating taking a different approach when considering catching potential protracted moves in the market. It calls for selling either 50 cent to a $1.00 wide deep in the money put spreads. This strategy allows one to stay static long in the market, put up reduced margin in most cases, and most of all is a …

Grain Spreads: Waiting Game

Sean Lusk General Commentary Leave a Comment

Interesting price movements this week that so far have resulted in minimal price movement for corn and beans this week. While there has been some positive trade talk regarding Chinese Ag purchases and perhaps a signed phase one agreement in November, harvest pressures in my view emerge in the Midwest. To me that’s the battle with prices for now. For …