The soy eased today. Are the highs in? The report tomorrow will be important in my opinion. It is my belief the yield could come in approx 50.5 bu. That would potentially add 220 million bu to the carry. There are so many scenarios that can play out at present. The end game here is that the carry overs are …
AG TIME – Awaiting the Report Friday
The beans were up led by meal. The talk du jour was the Chinese prices are higher over concern about a lack of supply. A couple perceptions that I am working through. The Chinese bean imports in July are less than anticipated. Fact, they are trailing last year this time by 2mmt. Demand gone is gone forever. It goes to …
Olive Line Hits
All my opinions as usual below. So we are in week 4 off my Olive line buy levels in grains and deferred livestock contracts that to me tested souls but now are up and running higher. Most of the bullish factors are still in place in my view. Bad US Hard wheat crop and potential global supply demand decrease. A …
AG TIME – Macro Thoughts
The markets are in a figure it out mode before the report on Friday. A couple comments regarding my long term perception as it relates to the macro set up. There is no question that China has been the largest story with respect to demand over the last decade. The growth has been unprecedented. I believe it is important to …
AG TIME – Do we Have Separation?
The soy complex under pressure. The rhetoric will have us believe it is due to the tariff situation. Perhaps. However, there is much to consider. The global soy production is going up. The demand is waning. The title do we have separation refers to the bean corn relationship. Perhaps a sea change. It is my belief the global shift has …
Cattle – Wall of Demand?
Good Day Producers and Speculators, The comments below are all my opinions. If you are trading always use a risk stop or the risk can become uncontrollable. These are volatile markets. So let’s recap as we assess the impact of when markets hit these olive extreme’s like 3 weeks ago down by previous months lows. We were looking for a monthly reversal up to buy KWU 4.73, CZ …
AG TIME – Much to Think About
There are many currents running now. The trade wars have given the market much to consider. It is my belief the whole thing will be solved before anything becomes active regarding the US Chinese threats. However, it is my belief the US will have won the concessions it requests. In the mean time, the Chinese economy is showing signs of …
AG TIME – Focus on the Numbers
The markets are down in the soy. I am tired of talking about the rhetoric. It is my belief we need to focus on the numbers and that should over the long run have an impact on the price. Looking at the reality of the bean market, the USDA has estimated a 580 mil bu carryover (RECORD). The USDA will …
AG TIME – Round and Round
The soy is very difficult to trade given the continual rhetoric. If we are just dealing with the facts related to the market. There is no shortage of soy in the world. The Brazilian is exporting record amounts of beans – 10.2 million in July. This trade war has certainly aided there bottom line. This will incentivize them to plant …
AG TIME – China Talks Resume
The soy was sharply higher driven by the talk that china has again engaged the US regarding trade wars. It is my contention, and has been mine that the Chinese will have no choice but to give. It may now be upon us. They are suffering although the media here does not report the reality. They cannot afford this. Period. …