Good Day ARP here, These represent some of my daily macro thoughts. Argentina has imposed a 10% tax on feed grains. It is my opinion this is a bullish market input! Perhaps we sell beans against the long wheat position. QUANTIFY YOUR RISK. FEEDGRAINS If you are nervous long KC WHEAT, trade with stops. Use a trailing stop …
AG TIME time to watch SA
The soy complex up today led by meal. The reason Arg placed a export tariff on ag exports. In my thought this was something that was dialed into the market some time ago. We traded a summer market with argentina in decline due to weather. It was discussed at length by every analyst that the argentinian crops would cause China …
Getting into the Weeds!
The lack of deliveries of soft red wheat this morning could suggest that there is concern over the quality of the 2018/2019 harvest…………………..The CME contract is imperfect in the sense that millers fear receiving the 4 parts per million vomitoxin stocks at a 25 cent discount and not the FDA friendly grade of #2 SRW in order to make the …
AG TIME – Enjoy the Weekend
The markets in general (row crop) witnessed some strength. Nothing goes straight up or down. The bean market was due a bit of a bounce in my opinion. The sales remain strong given the discounts to South America. In addition, as I mentioned yesterday, the Argentinian currency situation and the Brazilian sales to date may force the Chinese back to …
End of the Month Positioning
In my opinion it just feels like a short covering bounce in corn and beans after the August slide as the weather still appears to be conducive for allowing the crop to get larger………….Crop tours are still reporting that yield potential may exceed the estimates the USDA issued in August. First notice day on the September futures tomorrow………. Wheat is …
AG TIME – Same Tunes Different Day
The soy down yet again. The commentary here sounds like the same tune over again. The weather has been good here towards the end of the growing season. The conditions are hanging at a high level even with an advanced crop. Will the government add bushels as the pro farmer crop tour saw? Remains to be seen. A saying “big …
It’s Time to Get to Work!
It’s time to get to work and get the corn and bean crops out of the field and into the bin, and/or other storage unit like ghost malls and parking lots! This is meant as humor yet emphasizes the creative ways that producers and warehousemen adapt!……….. I sense that we will have that “good” problem of having to put corn …
KC Wheat- Neckline holds?
OLIVE LINE WATCH Arp here, I am watching for two potential opportunities today. As you know they can come and go fast. The olive line is here as a tool to assist you in your trading, whatever level trader you may be. There is no crystal ball. Everyone needs good money management skills. KC WHEAT I am watching KC WHEAT …
AG TIME – A Tale of Two Cities
The soy is experiencing a quiet day overall. The market is digesting the recent break and perhaps consolidating for a minute. The weather looks conducive to bringing home a very large soybean crop. The reality is that we have priced in a realistic price relative to the historic numbers. My contention is that the prices are supposed to move to …
Scale Down
In my view we’re enjoying a fantastic finish of the growing season for corn and beans and the National Weather Service is calling for slightly warmer and wetter than normal conditions in the Heartland in its 6 to 10 day forecast. The state by state condition reports usually receive less emphasis as crops near harvest in my opinion. The market …