ag complex

John WalshGrains

The soy complex awaits the usda planting report on Friday. The market has a lot to digest. The south American harvest is moving along nicely. brazil exports are moving at a brisk pace. This will continue as the US market share is expected to dwindle. The Chinese purchases going forward will be booked mostly from the southern hemisphere.  If the usda adds the expected 4-5 million bushels to the planting a carryover of 500 million plus may be in the works. The markets will then move to a long term sell rally strategy with the funds still net long beans.

The corn market was a bit higher. The expected decline in acreage could spark a small short covering rally after the report. the difficulty for corn in the long run is the availability of competitive corn on a global scale. Also feed grains in general. The corn market has been weaker than soy over the last year. This has helped to build a small demand base under the market. The ethanol demand has been strong as well. look for any rallies to present selling opportunitie as corn will remain range bound for another 6- 12 months without a global weather problem. The range has been approx. 330-430 on the board. This still seems very reasonable,give or take 10 cents

be well