The soy was higher today. I would like to take a step back and look at the market from a longer term perspective. No specific trade ideas. Just a thought on where we may be going. It is my belief the complex is on a major shift. The last while has been based on crushing for meal demand. Protein. The …
Accuracy and Reliability
Recent published studies indicate that the USDA is getting more reliable and accurate with September production and supply/demand estimates when compared with the final figures…………..Just another reason that the USDA should be respected and the report on Wednesday approached with respect and caution……………….. When compared with the August figures over the last twenty years the final corn production figures were …
Buy Corn, Wheat, Sell Spus, Stocks?
ARP here, I will jump right in. There are a lot of Olives I am looking for. The Volatility creates risk, but olive opportunities as well. Fridays can be interesting days for the trade. In addition we can look for setups into the next week. STOCKS I have put out a Olive Line sell in the Dow at 26170. Could …
AG TIME – Marking Time Now
The soy markets have corrected a bit here with meal leading the way. The USDA report Wednesday should provide a couple things. 1) confirmation of a larger carry. 2) confirmation of a weakening demand base. The current estimates have cut China’s demand back. It is important in my opinion to understand that the numbers in and of themselves by all …
Olive Line – Currency, Meats, Grains
ARP HERE, There continues to be chaos around the globe due to uncertainty regarding the currency relationships. There has been much movement in the currency pairs over the last 6 months. CURRENCY The dollar 95.55 nl(neckline) rejected. This could be a possible top in my opinion. MEATS It is one of my thoughts. Don’t be afraid to fade public opinion. …
Tasks at Hand
The USDA will issue new production and supply/demand estimates next Wednesday at 11:00 am Chicago time…………………Trade estimates are being released and it appears that the expectation is for the bean crop to be larger than the previous USDA estimate in August while the corn crop could be very close to the August estimate…………….Carry over projections in both domestic and international …
AG TIME – What is Going on?
The meal rallied today. The thought of Argentina putting an export tax on beans is pushing meal. This to me does not make sense. The US harvest is upon us and the size of the crop will allow Argentina, and any one else for that matter, to buy beans, import and crush for profit. The world is awash with a …
Harvest Approaches………Preliminary 9/5
It appears as if “Anything Goes” as we approach corn and bean harvest, wheat seeding, mid-term elections and new trade deals with Canada, China and others………………….We are a week away from the USDA Production and Supply/Demand estimates for conditions as of September 1 …………………. Some crop tours have suggested that the corn crop is close to the August USDA figure …
Olive Line Signals – Stocks, Meats, Grains
ARP here, good day to all. There are many exiting things going on as I see it. I am jumping into the markets right away. STOCKS I put out an Olive Line Sell in the Dow on Aug 30th. The price 26170. I’m bearish as my extreme Olive Line sell printed. The August High could be in. The pit bear …
AG TIME – What are People Thinking?
The soy lower today. Moderately so. I don’t have a lot to say today. There is a lot baked in the cake. The US crop is finishing in a very positive light. It seems probable, based on private estimates, that the bean yield will increase from the last USDA report. This is significant as the SA planting is underway. The …