Ag Outlook

John WalshGrains

The markets continue to advance on a tech look at the market. In my opinion the soy complex has separated itself from the cash fundamentals. The USDA report is in front of us. The private estimates (Informa, and Stone)  released over the last two days have confirmed the recent production numbers. The USDA has no real incentive to make any major changes …

Ag Thoughts

John WalshGrains

The markets await the USDA report on the 8Th. The beans remain steady on ideas the harvest is winding down, and the thought may be that the yield has declined a bit on the tail end. This in my opinion is hoping and wishing for the bulls. However the market may rally into the report. The exists a amount of …

Ag Commentary

John WalshGrains

The market came under pressure today in both beans and soymeal. The meal actually was the downside leader. The weather looks great for continued harvest progress. The yields remain within the usda range of expectation. The focus on the fundamental front will shift to the south American progress as we wind down domestically. The weather there is improving with pockets …

Ag Commentary

John WalshGrains

Quiet finish to the days activity. Markets were up overnight and early, then settled back. The fundamentals remain in tact. The questions remain regarding the south American weather. The southern area of Brazil looks a bit to wet. The conclusion being drawn by some is the wet will 1) cause delays 2) promote fungus issues there and potentially neighboring countries. …

Ag Commentary

John WalshGrains

The markets are somewhat subdued. The harvest pace has been fairly swift. The weather through November looks beneficial, and harvest will continue to roll along. Those that look for harvest to put in a low will most likely attempt to start a bottom picking expedition that may help the market to bounce a bit. The yield reports have remained fairly …

Ag Commentary

John WalshGrains

The Soy Complex started the day higher on a sale announcement to China. This wore off quickly as the weather has improved and harvest pressure is there. In addition the bean sales for new crop are slowing and are well behind the year ago levels. This trend will continue with south American stocks at very ample levels. look for the …

Ag Commentary

John WalshGrains

The soy complex awaits the future. the fundamentals from a historic perspective are very bearish. However, the carry at 430 harkins to the last few years where the carry fell based on the lack of global production. Is this where we are at today ? perhaps. But the Brazilian and Argentinian weather is improving drastically. This will go a ways to growing …

Ag Commentary

John WalshGrains

The markets rallied again today based on concerns over dryness in central and northern Brazil. The forecast has some chance for improvement. This however remains to be seen. So we have built in some risk premium early. justifiable ? Remains to be seen . Looking forward the US carryover at 430 million bu is probably understated by 70 – 90 …