The beans were up but did not follow through. The condition ratings were unchanged. I am noticing some structural things to be aware of. The meal, although higher, the bear spreads are working again. This may be important. Also the oil spreads are attempting to stabilize. It will be important to watch the Indian monsoons. It is my belief we …
AG TIME – What’s Next?
The beans continued the rally. The EU announcement is viewed as positive. The weather may offer some dry areas. Also, there is some speculation that perhaps the Chinese will be forced to settle. Ultimately I believe that is the case, however, it may take a bit of pain first. In the meantime, it is my contention that there are some …
AG TIME – Soy High?
The beans jumped on the opening following the EU announcement. While that is good news the net effect won’t be substantial. The gas announcement may be more important in the long run. I have a couple thoughts rolling around at present. The markets have rallied a bit off the low. The $9.00 level basis Nov is an important level. To …
AG TIME – Much to Consider
The market traded both sides today. Obviously there are alot of considerations to understand. It appears the govt program to assist the farmer could equal 120-to as much as 150 per bu in payments. This is being considered as a one time payment. If this plays out, which I believe it will, it would put beans near $10.00. This will …
AG TIME pay to play
The bean market rallied today,the reason sited is the 12 bln aide package rolled out to farmers. This band aide will assist this crop season. I am obviously pro agriculture. I would say that it is my observation that govt programs are rarely a friendly scenario. Depending on the details which I have yet to see this could ultimately pay …
AG TIME – Biding Time
A two sided quiet trade was the feature today. The condition ratings showed a slight improvement as some beneficial rains have been received. The reality of the beans is that the ratings are high. This creates a cushion. The yield prospects are good at present. A severe drought situation could impact the market but that is not at present likely. …
AG TIME
There are many considerations in the market at present. The President threatened the full monty today with all Chinese exports to the US under tariff. This will not transpire in my opinion because I believe China will capitulate. The Chinese wont want this to transpire. At present the Chinese currency is under sincere pressure. This is a defense tactic but …
AG TIME big changes
The soy traded both sides. Some thoughts. The Chinese bean stocks are up from a year earlier. Global soy coverage is very high given the crush margins. The meal demand in China is slowing, leading to a slow down in their internal crush rate. All this spells a long term change in business flows. In addition, the way China looks …
AG TIME – And Now We Wait
The Soy markets are biding time now. The beans have bounced a bit. This could continue with a further reduction in ratings. The bean ratings, like corn, are in a high end of the condition ratings from a historic perspective. My personal upside potential without a real problem is 865-880 basis Aug. For the record that should push Nov 19 …
AG TIME
The beans have marked a near term low. This rally will present another selling opportunity. However, be patient. The funds are short and some fears over weather are necessary. They are not realistic in my opinion but necessary. It means little if the carry is 580 or 520. There will be a record amount of beans available in the world. …