The soy rebounded sharply today. This was due given the recent break. the market will have concerns over the trade wars going forward. There still is a underlying theme that there is a friendly market out there. My report yesterday suggested to take defense up with profits on net short positions. It is possible to rally into the USDA report …
AG TIME time to be nimble
The soy continues to break, the beans and meal both. This is significant. I have been bearish,not due to the rhetoric and trade spat. But, because the numbers from a historic perspective warrant lower prices. I do believe history is the great equalizer. All things happen again. Having said all that I believe it is time to be cautious. Everything …
AG TIME
Two sided trade today. there are alot of considerations here. The market has broken alot over concerns on the tariffs. This is a significant scenario and will have implications. The largest concern I have looking forward is the production growth. We are growing global carry overs in spite of record demand. Looking at this years crop. I feel we will …
AG TIME
The beans have broken sharply. The talk is that the tariff threats are the reason. It is my contention that the bean and soy complex in general is bearish. It would appear today that we have marked a low. This may be temporary in nature. The US will impose the crippling tariffs on July 6th. It is my belief that …
AG TIME
The beans have flat lined a bit here to digest the relationship between the US and China. It is my opinion that the Chinese will give further and a long term deal will be reached. however, to what end. the rhetoric continues to look for every reason except for the obvious for the break. The world is awash in oilseeds. …
AG TIME – Bear on the Move
The soy was led lower by beans and meal today. After review of the USDA report yesterday. I must say that I was not bullish the bean numbers. To the contrary. I see some real potential mistakes. First, it is probable that the USDA has over stated the exports by 50-100 mil bu. I don’t buy the story the Chinese …
AG TIME summer thoughts
The usda is out of the way. This report is important in my opinion and opens the door for hedging opportunities. The usda lowered the 18/19 domestic carry to 385. This may open the door for a bit of a bounce that in my opinion presents a hedging opportunity. The global numbers remain very large. In addition the Brazilian crop …
AG TIME
The soy was weak, yet again led by the meal market. The weather has been good on the surface with plenty of moisture received through key growing regions of the belt. We now are back at support in the beans at 950. The USDA will release a supply and demand tomorrow, then the acreage at the end of the month. …
AG TIME – Summer Market
The soy was down nominal again today. The bean exports are lagging. The Chinese are buying Brazilian. The real has moved into a position that makes it difficult to not sell into the export arena. All aspects are working against the beans at present. This trend should continue and can open the door for further declines. As I have stated, …
AG TIME structural changes
The beans and meal are under serious pressure. This creates structural damage to both charts. The pendulum is swinging in my opinion. The Chinese are selling beans from there reserves. The Brazilian has supplied almost all recent beans. The estimates for next years SA crops are on the rise due to the extreme currency differences between the US. It is …