The Soy Complex started the day higher on a sale announcement to China. This wore off quickly as the weather has improved and harvest pressure is there. In addition the bean sales for new crop are slowing and are well behind the year ago levels. This trend will continue with south American stocks at very ample levels. look for the US to continue to loose market share. Perhaps the balance sheet is over stated by 2-3 mln tons. This would push the carryover towards 500 mil bu. The southern hemisphere is starting to make better progress in planting. There are still some weather concerns in both Brazil and Argentina. But many concerns are being reduced as the weather has moderated. There are private analysts actually adding crop size relative to what the usda has figured. If true, or if realized the current board price of 10 will prove to be way to high. The oilshare gained this week. In general soyoil demand has been very solid. The global oilseed trade has been stout. This trend should continue. The flat price is not guns a blazing bullish, but on a relative basis should continue to find strength vs the meal.
The corn market is making a run for recent lows. The pace of harvest, The overall carry, The availability of Brazilian corn on the world market,all are key considerations. The corn could have one more push lower. There is a long term structural issue here for price. Unless the US or a major producing country experiences a weather problem the corn story remains difficult in my opinion.
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