ARP Learn to disregard news stories that can’t assist your trading. This morning it was reported by Bloomberg news that China is taking out ads in the Des Moines register to influence the farm lobby in Iowa. In Rural America. This is getting crazy in my opinion. Last week Rick Santelli of CNBC spoke about the Central Bank telling parliament …
AG TIME – Looking for Some Changes
The soy mixed today. The oil remains strong, meal did struggle. There are some thoughts regarding this. The macro picture is cheap beans. The US being the cheapest. We are actually allowing everyone, most importantly, Argentina to buy all the US beans they want then crush them and sell the meal. This ultimately will create a bearish protein scenario, in …
Washington Drama and USDA Reports
It appears that the trade is waiting to see how corn and bean harvest proceeds and if there will be an increase of hedging pressure as momentum grows……………………………Field reports continue to show very good yields yet, there always is the exception! Friday’s Small Grains Summary and Stocks-in-all-Positions reports typically do not get the hype that Production reports receive yet, these …
AG TIME – ASF ITS EXPANDING
The markets were very interesting to me today. The question is – will there be follow through next week? Many thoughts here. First, there was a new case of African swine fever found in China. This was in a new province. The key aspect to me here is not the number of animals, but the fact it is spreading great …
Wheat/Washington/Weather
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices. It is a big day for wheat number crunchers next Friday, September 28 …
AG TIME – A Rally Opportunity
Apparently the funds are buying beans because they are cheap? Whatever that means. As I have said, a nice rally in beans should be welcomed. The beans at levels on the board if, and I say if, they were hedged months ago, equate to a tidy profit with the one time govt payment (1.65 reported). This rally in my opinion …
Harvest Momentum
Some forecasters are calling for a frost next weekend in the northern Midwest which, if occurs, is a few days ahead of normal……………………………………Some farmers might welcome the frost as weeds will become less of a nuisance with harvest…………………………………………………..The National Weather Service is also calling for wetter than normal conditions to prevail which might impede harvest activity yet, lessen the probability …
Important Wheat Dates
Looking ahead the wheat market gets to decipher the stocks report on September 28 and then the Supply/Demand estimates in October, November and December and then the mother of all reports in January 2019 when we’ll get the final production figures, supply/demand, stocks in-all-positions as of December 1, 2018 and winter wheat seeding……………………………………………. We’ll also work through the …
AG TIME – Move The Calendar Up
The soy is getting a bounce today. There are a couple reasons this could be transpiring. There may be some bottom picking. The market has broken a lot. Another scenario could be a thought that the China US relations could find some common ground. Food for thought. Let’s look at some real life scenarios playing out. The Brazilian planting is …
AG TIME – Numbers Piling Up
The soy is under pressure. The Trump administration is adding 200 billion worth of tariffs. China will retaliate. This certainly is an issue. however, the biggest issue in my opinion is the overproduction. The global production continues to expand. Given the proposed demand, it will become very difficult to draw these stocks down. I find it perplexing and almost disingenuous …