Hogs Make New Low

Ben DiCostanzoGeneral Commentary

June Lean Hogs gap opened lower, rallied to the high which closed the gap at 99.05 and then broke down to a new low for the down move at 97.825. It settled near the low at 98.175.  The cash market has stagnated even with good demand from consumers and exports. The indices have not been able to challenge their recent peaks and futures prices have declined to take away most of the premium it had over the indices.  Traders may be worrying that the cutout will continue to struggle and not break out of its doldrums any time soon. I think we are just getting started and the cash markets will rebound and move higher into the spring holidays. The break down in price took futures down below support at 98.475 and the rising 50-DMA now at 97.90. It settled above the 50-DMA but below the support level. The 50-DMA will key trade on Tuesday in my opinion. A failure from the 50-DMA could see price move lower and test support at 97.30. Support then comes in at 95.30. If price can recover and rally past 98.475, we could test resistance at 100.075.

The Pork Cutout Index ticked higher and is at 98.40 as of 05/03/2024.

The Lean Hog Index ticked higher and is at 90.96 as of 05/06/2024.

Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 481,000, which is above last week’s 476,000 and last year’s 466,430.

For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, May 07, 2024, at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.

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Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Market Strategist

Walsh Trading, Inc.

Direct: 312.957.4163


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