The Seasonal Rally doesn’t disappoint We rolled higher led by beans and meal. Oil share taking a pounding yet again. As I have said , we are entering a buy period as harvest is coming to a close. And, the market now looks to South America for production. I have essentially written the same article with different thoughts and words for a couple …
PER-THANKSGIVING Chart Outlook
Let’s give Thanks, confidence in System? Change, FRB Yellens’ natives getting restless? Yield curve flattens. 2 year i rate closer to tens before yearend, .60-ish Is this this markets players ready to blow or maybe flip, long bonds like in Summer 2016 at highs? My diary had a $40.5bil player flip long at those 2.08% all time lows in rates …
LC FC, Hogs, same pattern? Lumber, Corn Wheat supports.
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Macro Ag
Not much to say today with the market. Two sided trade. The oilshare took a healthy beating here. The market is focused on the outside vegoils, and the thought of possible dryness in argentina which would effect the meal. This in my opinion is so far fetched. The reality is that the world is awash with beans. The exports are …
Macro Ag
Markets rolling today. talk of dry weather in argentina. that’s all it takes today. No real long term problem, just a forecast. the funds really push this around. Anyway, this is presenting a long term opportunity. Lets look at some facts. The domestic export numbers are well behind estimates. The usda is probably over stating by 75-100 million bu. That …
Macro Ag Commentary
The Bean market may be due a bounce after the recent weakness. ? why ? the weather in Argentina is turning a bit dry in the forecast. That is correct the forecast. The market seems to want to dial bullish scenarios in much quicker. I don’t know for sure this will be the case. Just thinking out loud. Lets look …
Ag Commentary
The complex came under pressure today actually led by soy oil. However all three, the beans, meal and oil felt the selling. The weather in South America looks good for planting and for early production prospects. The argentine crop will need some moisture come December. There remains plenty of time at present. Given the talk of a productive start thoughts …
Ag Outlook
The market posted moderate gains today. Typical perhaps for a Friday. The USDA report puts to rest question regarding yield. The next question is the south American crop size. The weather in Brazil is good but has some difficulty. The Argentinian weather looks good. The prospects are in place, now volatility begins. There are a couple major possible moves in …
Ag Outlook
USDA report in the rear view mirror now. There were no surprises, but some important aspects. The yield was as expected, unchanged. Carry drops 5 million to 425. This is important that we stay above 400 million. The next question is will the US export figure remain 2250. The answer is determined by the south American crop. It is my …
Ag Overview
The markets are awaiting the USDA report on Thursday. Perhaps it remains quiet until then. Where do we go from here ? My observations are that most think the corn will go lower based on a increase in yield. Most think the bean crop is drawing down due to late yield reports that show a decline. It is my belief …