Soybeans– Soybeans closed higher on the day, after a 3 3/4 drop in the overnight session. China is working towards the target of 12 mmt by the end of the year, but still has a long way to go. Even if, China meets the exports target the upside may already be priced in on the recent move to 1169. China …
Navigating Soybean Crush Margins
Historically, we crushed for meal (to feed pigs and chickens) and treated oil as the byproduct. The Renewable Diesel (RD) boom flipped that script. We started crushing for oil to feed the demand, leaving us with a glut of meal as the byproduct. That structural inversion is the root of current market tension. We are now in the “Feedstock Era,” …
The Grains Continue Lower on Thursday
Soybeans Soybeans were lower again today, after trading closing to unchanged in the overnight session. The US dollar is moving higher again, now at its highest level since mid-May of this year. A higher dollar is not good for exports, but soybeans are also coming down. China has a long way to go on its export agreement. China still needs …
The Grains and Soy Complex Sell-Off on Wednesday
Soybeans– Soybeans saw profit taking again today, closing much lower. Soybean meal was also down pretty big, which could be the start of a major correction. Soybean oil was also significantly lower. China’s soybean purchases are now estimated above 2 mmt, which is still 10 mmt of the target set for the end of the year. LSEG decreased its estimate …
The Grains Trade a Tighter Range on Tuesday
Soybeans– There was some profit taking in soybeans today following yesterday’s rally. China bought 16-18 cargoes of US soybeans. China still has 10 mmt to left to go to meet the 12 mmt target, but the pace of exports is picking up. It remains to be seen whether or not China will come through but its looking more likely. The …
WRT World Agricultural Supply and Demand November 18
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The Grains Trade Lower After the First WASDE Report Since September
Soybeans– The first WASDE since September came out this morning. Ending stocks were lowered 10 mb, from the September report to 290 mb. In 2024/25 ending stocks were 316 mb. Exports came in at 1,635 mb, compared to 1,685 mb in September. It’s somewhat surprising to see exports lowered with China back in the market, this is the reason the …
Soybeans Keep Going Higher – No Profit Taking In Sight
Soybeans– Soybeans are showing impressive strength leading into tomorrow’s report. Soybeans were up 12, after trading 3 1/2 cents higher in the overnight session. It’s interesting to see prices rally this hard without much profit taking. Soybeans are now trading at a 17-month high, having rallied $1.20 since early October. Pre-report estimates for Friday’s WASDE show yield an average yield …
Soybeans Keep the Rally Going on Wednesday
Soybeans– Despite fears that China may not come through on the 12 mmt purchase by the end of the year, soybeans had a solid gain today. Reportedly China has plenty of soybeans for feed use after buying so many cargoes from South America. Soybeans are trading like funds are extremely long. Funds may decide to go risk-off leading into Friday’s …
The Grains Trade a Tighter Range on Tuesday
Soybeans– Soybeans were lower in the overnight session and were lower again today. I still think soybeans can move higher from here. The question is whether China comes through on the 12 mmt of soybeans they agreed to purchase for the current marketing year. More information will be available when the government reopens, but it seems likely that funds have …