WALSH PURE SPREADER
Pure Hedge Division
RICH MORAN 10/24/2025
DEC Live Cattle – DEC Live Hogs Spread (LEZ25-HEZ25)
Last month (9/5/25-9/10/25) we tracked selling OCT Live Cattle and buying OCT Lean Hogs against them. I call this the STORK trade …. STeak – (minus) pORK. I think this trade could possibly be a safer way to slip some sales in the Live Cattle market into or position by hedging them with some buys in Lean Hog market.
I have been tracking the DEC-STORK and the FEB-STORK, hoping to get one of them to settle below the 14-day and 21-day moving averages. With Live Cattle finishing limit down across the board today, both the DEC-STORK and the FEB-STORK settled below both of these moving averages. Today, we are going to focus on the DEC-STORK because it settled a little closer to these moving averages and it should be somewhat easier for us to sell this spread just below them.
If the DEC-STORK opens on Monday below 155.700, which is below the 14-day and the 21-day moving averages, I suggest we try to sell it at 155.000 or better. That is sell DEC Live Cattle and buy DEC Lean Hogs (LEZ25-HEZ25) at 155.00 or better. If we are not able to sell it on the opening, continue to offer it at 155.000.
Risk 6.000 or $2,400 Per Spread To Make 18.000 or $7,200 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.
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Following up on the still active past trade ideas:
- 10/3/2025: ZCZ25-ZOZ25 (DEC Corn-Oats Spread)
I think if we can break through this support and trade below, as well as settle below, both of the 14-day and 21-day moving averages, this support could turn into resistance. At that point, it might be a good time to get short the ZCZ25-ZOZ25 spread (sell ZCZ25 and buy ZOZ25).
Risk 8 cents or $400 To Make 24 cents or $1,200, plus fees and commission.
- 10/1/2025: SBH26-SBK26 (MAR-MAY’26 Sugar #11 Spread)
Today’s settlement: .49, Long at .42
On 10/1/25 I said “I think it might be a good play to bid today’s settlement (42 cents) or better when the corn market opens.”
“If we get filled, risk 24 cents or $268.80 Per Spread to make 50 cents or $560 Per Spread plus fees and commissions.
On 10/2/25 the market opened at .41, so we are long at .42.
Risk 24 cents (price of .18) or $268.80 Per Spread to make 50 cents (price of .92) or $560.00 Per Spread plus fees and commissions.
- 9/24/25: KEZ25-ZWZ25 (DEC’25 Kansas City-Chicago Wheat Spread)
Today’s settlement: -11, Long at -14½
On 9/24/25, KEZ25-ZWZ25 settled -12¾.
I suggested placing an offer to buy KEZ25-ZWZ25 at -14½ on 9/25/25. The spread traded -15, so we are long at -14½.
Risking 8 cents (price of -22½) or $400 to make 24 cents (price of +9½) or $1,200 plus fees and commissions.
- 9/17/2025: ZWZ25-ZCZ25 (DEC Wheat-Corn Spread)
If we can get the ZWZ25-ZCZ25 spread to trade and settle above the 14-day and 21-day moving averages, I think getting long this spread with a relatively short stop could be a good play. I believe this might offer us a nice risk to reward trade.
Today the spread settled 89¼, above both the 14-day that ended the day at 85½, and the 21-day that ended the day at 88.
If we open at 88 or higher, which is above both moving averages, I suggest buying the spread on the open at 88½ or better. If we are not filled on the open, continue to work a 88½ bid.
Risk 11 cents or $550 Per Spread to make 33 cents or $1,650 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.
- 9/10/25: ZCZ25-ZCH26 (DEC-MAR Corn Spread)
Today’s settlement: -13¾, Long at -17½
On Wednesday (9/10/25) I suggested that if the ZCZ25-ZCH26 opens at -17½ (Wednesday’s settlement) or higher, trying to get long the spread (buying Dec25-Corn versus selling Mar’26-Corn) at -17½.
The spread opened at -17½ and traded lower, so we are long at -17½.
We were risking 2 cents (price of -19½) or $100 Per Spread to make 6 cents (price of -11½) or $300 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.
On Friday (10/17/25) I raised our stop to -17½ for a scratch. I hate to turn a winner into a loser.
On Wednesday (10/22/25) we raised our stop another 2 cents to -15½ for a 2 cents winner. This was our original risk on this trade.
So now we are looking to make 2 cents ($100 Per Spread) at -15½ or to make 6 cents ($300 Per Spread) at -11½, plus fees and commissions.
- 8/27/25: ZSF26-ZSN26 (JAN-JULY’26 Soybean Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -36, Long at -40¼
On Friday (10/3/25) I said, “yesterday (10/2/25) this spread, ZSF26-ZSN26 (JAN-JULY’26 Soybean Spread), settled above both the 14-day and the 21-day moving averages at -39. I suggest buying the spread at -39 or better when the Soybean market opens. If you do not get filled on the opening, work a -39 bid.”
On Monday (10/3/25) the spread opened at -40½, so we are long at -40¼.
I said to risk 4 cents (price of -44¼) or $200 to make 12 cents (price of -28¼) or $600 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.
On Wednesday (10/22/25) I said “we are only risking 4 cents on this trade and we have a 4¼ cent lead on the trade so we are raising our stop to -40¼ for a scratch. I hate to turn a winner into a loser.
Now we are risking a scratch at -40¼ to make 12 cents ($600) at -28¼, plus fees and commissions.
- 8/6/25: ZSX25-ZSF26 (NOV-JAN Soybean Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -18½, Long at -17½
The spread settled above the 14-day and the 21-day at -17¾ on 8/21/25. You should be long at -17½ from the open on 8/22/25.
Risking 3½ cents (price of -21) or $175 to make 9 ½ cents (price of -8) or $475 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.
- 7/23/25: ZWZ25-ZWH26 (DEC’25-MAR’26 Wheat Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -15½, Long at -18½
Risking 3½ cents (price of -22) or $175 Per Spread to make 10 cents (price of -8½) or $500 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.
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Rich Moran
Senior Commodities Broker
Direct: (312)985-0298
Cell: (773)502-5321
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