Soybeans–
Soybeans closed higher on the day, after a 3 3/4 drop in the overnight session. China is working towards the target of 12 mmt by the end of the year, but still has a long way to go. Even if, China meets the exports target the upside may already be priced in on the recent move to 1169. China has 2.7 mmt booked of the 12 mmt target. The IGC forecasts 2025/26 soybean production at 426 mmt, down 3 mmt from the previous estimate. S&P Global is forecasting an increase in soybean production next year to 4.51 bb, compared to this year’s 4.25 bb. The higher production estimate is not surprising with the recent rally above 1100. Weather is also starting to have an impact on South America. LA Nina is increasing the possibility of drought in Brazil and Argentina in December. I still think soybeans can move to 1080, but if the drought materializes as expected that should offer support. There’s a sell signal on the weekly chart.
January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1125 (+2), high of 1127, low of 1113. March ’26 Soybeans (ZSH26) settled at 1134 (+2), high of 1136, low of 1124. Cash price is at 1192 (-14)
December Bean Meal (ZMZ25) settled at 315.1 (+1.1) high of 315.8, low of 312.7
December Bean Oil (ZLZ25) settled at 50.26 (-0.40) high of 50.76, low of 49.60
Meal to Oil ratio (55.35% Meal – 44.650% Oil)
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1138) 5-day, (1123) 20-day, (1073) 50-day, (1057) 100-day, (1050) 200-day
ZSH26 Moving Averages – (1146) 5-day, (1132) 20-day, (1085) 50-day, (1071) 100-day, (1060) 200-day
ZMZ25 Moving Averages – (321.2) 5-day, (317.9) 20-day, (294.2) 50-day, (290.8) 100-day, (299.4) 200-day
ZLZ25 Moving Averages – (51.07) 5-day, (50.2) 20-day, (50.51) 50-day, (52.08) 100-day, (49.85) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 425 (-1), high of 427, low of 424. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 437 (-0.25). Cash price is 418 (-3)
It was a quiet trading session for corn, after a 1 1/4 cent drop in the overnight session. Old exports reports coming from the USDA show strong corn sales. It not surprising to see corn slow down a little bit here, with the seasonal. Corn should have an opportunity to get more export sales done with lower prices. I still think corn has a chance to move higher from here because yield should be lowered in one of the upcoming WASDE reports from that 186 bpa figure given on the last crop report. Prior to that, the USD was at 186.7 bpa in September, so you can see they made a very small adjustment.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (431) 5-day, (431) 20-day, (425) 50-day, (419) 100-day, (434) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (444) 5-day, (445) 20-day, (440) 50-day, (436) 100-day, (449) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 527 (unchanged), with a high of 532, low of 522. March ‘26 Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 539 (-2). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 525 (-9). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 511 (-9).
Wheat was up slightly today, after a small drop in the overnight session. After a bearish WASDE report, there’s more bearish news for the wheat market. The IGC raised global wheat production by 3 mmt to 830 mmt. Australia also is expecting a bumper crop for its wheat, raising production to the highest levels in 3 years due to favorable rains. Black Sea, EU, and Argentine wheat are all more competitive than the US. The dollar is also strong, compared to where it was at the beginning of December. Export sales may have a hard time going forward.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (536) 5-day, (535) 20-day, (521) 50-day, (531) 100-day, (562) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (549) 5-day, (550) 20-day, (537) 50-day, (548) 100-day, (579) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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