Soybeans–
The news of China deciding to buy US soybeans has really helped soybean prices move in the right direction, closing higher again today. China has agreed to purchase 12 mmt for the current marketing year and at least 25 mmt over the next 3 years. In 2024, China imported nearly 27 mmt of US soybeans. 7 cargoes or 430k mt of soybeans were purchased by China this week, pace will have to improve from here to hit the 12 mmt target before February. The next WASDE report is confirmed for November 14. The November report will be the first WASDE since September. Currently the domestic soybean harvest is estimated at 92% complete, compared to the 5-year average at 85%. Brazil planting is estimated at 47% complete, slightly ahead of the average pace. Brazil is getting rain in its soybean areas, which is improving soil conditions.
January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1134 (+19), high of 1135, low of 1114. March ’26 Soybeans (ZSH26) settled at 1140 (+16), high of 1141, low of 1121. Cash price is at 1066 (+8)
December Bean Meal (ZMZ25) settled at 320.8 (-0.8) high of 325.2, low of 315.8
December Bean Oil (ZLZ25) settled at 49.84 (+1.16) high of 49.94, low of 49.27
Meal to Oil ratio (56.925% Meal – 44.075% Oil)
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1109) 5-day, (1059) 20-day, (1053) 50-day, (1047) 100-day, (1045) 200-day
ZSH26 Moving Averages – (1118) 5-day, (1072) 20-day, (1067) 50-day, (1061) 100-day, (1054) 200-day
ZMZ25 Moving Averages – (314.6) 5-day, (290.4) 20-day, (285.9) 50-day, (287.2) 100-day, (299.8) 200-day
ZLZ25 Moving Averages – (49.72) 5-day, (50.50) 20-day, (50.99) 50-day, (52.48) 100-day, (49.48) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 434 (+2), high of 435, low of 427. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 446 (+2). Cash price is 430 (+1)
Corn was higher again today, after a 1/2 cent gain in the overnight session. Strength in soybeans and wheat is helping out corn. Harvest is estimated at 85% done versus the average at 75%. Weather is expected to be drier and favorable the rest of the week. Brazil planting is estimated at 60% complete. The WASDE report scheduled for November 14 is expected to be friendly, as the USDA may decide to cut its yield estimate from September.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (432) 5-day, (423) 20-day, (421) 50-day, (419) 100-day, (436) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (445) 5-day, (437) 20-day, (437) 50-day, (436) 100-day, (451) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 543 (+9), with a high of 545, low of 531. March ‘26 Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 557 (+9). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 526 (+20). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 531 (+7).
The news this morning was that China has an interest in buying US wheat. More details should come out soon, but it’s expected that China is looking to purchase between 200k and 400k mt. While it’s not a major purchase, more buying could happen later. It’s a good sign for the grains that China is interested in more than US soybeans. Wheat was up 8 1/2 cents in the overnight session and up even more during regular trading hours. Wheat has likely put in a bottom for now, but bearish fundamentals are still there. A higher wheat price makes exports less competitive and US wheat already trails Russian and French origin wheat in the price for export.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (532) 5-day, (512) 20-day, (518) 50-day, (537) 100-day, (567) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (548) 5-day, (528) 20-day, (535) 50-day, (555) 100-day, (585) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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