Introduction: The Great Divergence As we close the books on the 2025 U.S. harvest, the soybean market finds itself in a state of historic bifurcation. On one side, the domestic engine is firing on all cylinders: U.S. processors are crushing beans at a record annual pace, driven by the biofuel mandates cemented in the expansion of the 45Z Clean Fuel …
Navigating Soybean Crush Margins
Historically, we crushed for meal (to feed pigs and chickens) and treated oil as the byproduct. The Renewable Diesel (RD) boom flipped that script. We started crushing for oil to feed the demand, leaving us with a glut of meal as the byproduct. That structural inversion is the root of current market tension. We are now in the “Feedstock Era,” …
AG TIME – BIG CHANGES COMING ?
Let’s start with the outside markets. The Dollar specifically. The dollar is exhibiting strength. This strength should continue. This has a profound effect on the ag sector. Especially beans at present. It is no secret I am bearish the soy. The markets are oversupplied. And this will continue. It is my belief the meal too is overvalued and the market …
AG TIME – WISHING ON A STAR
The beans reached the $10.00 level and are bouncing because, because, oh yes, yes, the Chinese are speaking with the US! The break this past few weeks has less to do with the news and more to do with the reality of the market. The government has demand overstated. The bean sales are some 200 million less. Not because of …
AG TIME – JUST MARKING TIME
The funds were buyers today on “turn around Tuesday.” The markets made an attempt to rebound after yesterday’s trouncing. A couple factors to watch. The dollar continues to exhibit strength. Considering the record tax intake to the Treasury, the economic outlook continues to impress. This should continue to fuel strength in the US dollar. This will impact the AG sector …