Soybeans–
Soybeans saw profit taking again today, closing much lower. Soybean meal was also down pretty big, which could be the start of a major correction. Soybean oil was also significantly lower. China’s soybean purchases are now estimated above 2 mmt, which is still 10 mmt of the target set for the end of the year. LSEG decreased its estimate for Argentina’s soybean production by 1% to 46.9 mmt. The USDA has Argentina’s soybean production at 48.5 mmt. A drop in price would be beneficial for exports. It remains to be seen whether or not China will come through on the agreed upon target. The gap in the chart at 1070-1060 could act like a magnet if exports start to be weaker.
January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1136 (-17), high of 1152, low of 1135. March ’26 Soybeans (ZSH26) settled at 1144 (-15), high of 1159, low of 1143. Cash price is at 1123 (-3)
December Bean Meal (ZMZ25) settled at 318.9 (-8.1) high of 327.3, low of 317.9
December Bean Oil (ZLZ25) settled at 51.10 (-1.07) high of 52.45, low of 50.68
Meal to Oil ratio (55.525% Meal – 44.475% Oil)
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1143) 5-day, (1117) 20-day, (1070) 50-day, (1056) 100-day, (1050) 200-day
ZSH26 Moving Averages – (1152) 5-day, (1126) 20-day, (1083) 50-day, (1070) 100-day, (1059) 200-day
ZMZ25 Moving Averages – (325.5) 5-day, (315.8) 20-day, (294.1) 50-day, (290.3) 100-day, (299.5) 200-day
ZLZ25 Moving Averages – (50.96) 5-day, (50.29) 20-day, (50.57) 50-day, (52.16) 100-day, (49.80) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 429 (-7), high of 436, low of 428. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 441 (-8). Cash price is 428 (+2)
Corn was lower with the other grains and the entire soy complex today. We may be seeing a change in fund positioning from long to short now that COT reports are resuming. Up-to-date reports won’t be out until January, however. Corn is also seeing harvest pressure from farmer selling after the rally. The drop in corn is opportunity for exports to be made. La Nina is expected to become a story by the latter half of November. La Nina is expected to provide colder weather across the North, and warmer and drier weather in the southern part of the country.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (434) 5-day, (431) 20-day, (425) 50-day, (419) 100-day, (435) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (447) 5-day, (445) 20-day, (440) 50-day, (436) 100-day, (449) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 536 (-9), with a high of 550, low of 535. March ‘26 Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 549 (-9). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 544 (+2). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 515 (-10).
Wheat is seeing some profit taking after the rally off the news of Chinese wheat purchases. Wheat is due for a pullback as fundamentals are still sharply bearish. Friday’s WASDE didn’t change much in regard to what was known about wheat fundamentals. Open interest is at its lowest point since August, which indicates that funds could be leaving the market. US wheat needs to fall in price to stay competitive with French and Black Sea wheat. Wheat may be getting ready for another leg higher but fundamentals point say wheat shouldn’t be trading this high.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (538) 5-day, (534) 20-day, (521) 50-day, (532) 100-day, (563) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (552) 5-day, (548) 20-day, (537) 50-day, (549) 100-day, (580) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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