Soybeans–
Soybeans were lower today, after trading 2 cents lower in the overnight session. Brazil’s soybean planting is estimate at 81% complete, slower than the average pace. Argentina crop stress is building, especially in the north, with a spell of drier weather lately. China has increased it soybean purchase pace some after the initial purchases after the APEC Summit, however pace needs to keep improving to meet the the 12 mmt targe by the end of the year. China needs to purchase at least 10 mmt still. Even if exports the target, the upside for soybeans may be priced in. I have my eye on 1080, unless exports really ramp up and/or South America stays dry.
January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1123 (-1), high of 1131, low of 1116. March ’26 Soybeans (ZSH26) settled at 1132 (-2), high of 1139, low of 1125. Cash price is at 1095 (+3)
January Bean Meal (ZMF26) settled at 318.3 (-0.90) high of 320.7, low of 316.9
January Bean Oil (ZLF26)) settled at 50.52 (unchanged) high of 50.78, low of 49.78
Meal to Oil ratio (55.35% Meal – 44.650% Oil)
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1132) 5-day, (1125) 20-day, (1074) 50-day, (1058) 100-day, (1050) 200-day
ZSH26 Moving Averages – (1140) 5-day, (1134) 20-day, (1087) 50-day, (1072) 100-day, (1060) 200-day
ZMF26 Moving Averages – (321.1) 5-day, (321.1) 20-day, (299.0) 50-day, (294.4) 100-day, (302.0) 200-day
ZLZ25 Moving Averages – (51.07) 5-day, (50.2) 20-day, (50.51) 50-day, (52.08) 100-day, (49.85) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 423 (-1), high of 426, low of 422. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 436 (-0.75). Cash price is 417 (-1)
Corn was down 2 3/4 cents in the overnight session, while during today’s session corn closed close to unchanged. Brazil’s 1st crop corn is estimated at 93% complete. Corn may drift lower, with longs exiting the market. Open interest on Friday was down 53k contracts. The corn harvest is estimated at 96% complete. The seasonal trend is more bullish in December/January as harvest wraps up.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (431) 5-day, (431) 20-day, (425) 50-day, (419) 100-day, (434) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (444) 5-day, (445) 20-day, (440) 50-day, (436) 100-day, (449) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 522 (-4), with a high of 529, low of 519. March ‘26 Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 534 (-4). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 525 (unchanged). March KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 522 (-3).
Wheat was 6 1/4 cents lower during the overnight session and lower again today. Peace talks are bearish for wheat, especially if that causes export competition to increase due to less disruption in the Black Sea. The dollar is also at its highest levels in 6-months. SovEcon has Russia’s exports 400k mt lower than October at 4.7 mmt. Open interest is falling again. Open interest is now at its lowest levels since the beginning of July. Wheat may be entering a similar situation, as seen earlier in the year, where wheat drifts lower with smaller than usual open interest.
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (544) 5-day, (549) 20-day, (537) 50-day, (547) 100-day, (579) 200-day
ZWK26 Moving Averages – (553) 5-day, (559) 20-day, (548) 50-day, (549) 100-day, (589) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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