Soybeans
Soybeans were lower again today, after trading closing to unchanged in the overnight session. The US dollar is moving higher again, now at its highest level since mid-May of this year. A higher dollar is not good for exports, but soybeans are also coming down. China has a long way to go on its export agreement. China still needs to purchase 10 mmt to meet the 12 mmt target by the end of the year. China bought soybeans last time price was below 1120 that may be a level that is attractive to them this time around. If China can’t meet the export target; soybeans have a gap in the chart at 1070-1060, that’s where price could be headed next.
January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1122 (-13), high of 1142, low of 1121. March ’26 Soybeans (ZSH26) settled at 1132 (-12), high of 1151, low of 1131. Cash price is at 1106 (-17)
December Bean Meal (ZMZ25) settled at 314.0 (-4.9) high of 321.1, low of 313.1
December Bean Oil (ZLZ25) settled at 50.66 (-0.44) high of 51.46, low of 50.55
Meal to Oil ratio (55.35% Meal – 44.650% Oil)
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1138) 5-day, (1120) 20-day, (1072) 50-day, (1057) 100-day, (1050) 200-day
ZSH26 Moving Averages – (1147) 5-day, (1129) 20-day, (1084) 50-day, (1071) 100-day, (1059) 200-day
ZMZ25 Moving Averages – (322.7) 5-day, (316.9) 20-day, (294.7) 50-day, (290.6) 100-day, (299.4) 200-day
ZLZ25 Moving Averages – (51.06) 5-day, (50.29) 20-day, (50.55) 50-day, (52.13) 100-day, (49.83) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 426 (-3), high of 431, low of 425. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 437 (-3). Cash price is 421 (-3)
Corn was lower again today, after closing close to unchanged in the overnight session. The sell-off to me looks like farmer selling/harvest pressure, in addition it looks like there’s a change in fund positioning. Current COT report data won’t be out until January due to the government shutdown. The grains have shifted from relatively bearish fundamentals and bullish technical to a similar fundamental outlook with technicals getting worse. That points towards funds taking profits. If price keeps falling that will help exports, even with a higher dollar. I still think corn has room to go higher into 2026. S&P Global forecasts US corn acres to fall next spring to 95 million acres, a 3.8% decrease.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (431) 5-day, (431) 20-day, (425) 50-day, (419) 100-day, (434) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (444) 5-day, (445) 20-day, (440) 50-day, (436) 100-day, (449) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 527 (-9), with a high of 543, low of 526. March ‘26 Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 540 (-8). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 534 (-9). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 523 (-9).
Wheat was up slightly in the overnight session, but sold off again during today’s session. Wheat exports are better than last year at 2.692 mt, compared to 2.492 mt a year ago. US wheat exports have been seeing a lot of buying due to what looks like political favors. I’ve mentioned many times that US wheat trails other countries in price competitiveness. China bought a small amount of wheat after the APEC summit, and now Saudi Arabia booked a shipment for 300k mt after meeting with Trump at the White House. Saudia Arabia is getting F-35 Jets and computer chips from the US.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (518) 5-day, (522) 20-day, (508) 50-day, (520) 100-day, (560) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (534) 5-day, (537) 20-day, (527) 50-day, (540) 100-day, (579) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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