The following represent my personal thoughts. Right, wrong, or indifferent. There are no guarantees in life. Trading commodities is certainly no exception. It could actually be argued that it is one of the more difficult endeavors to find success. Such is life. That is why sometimes it takes a long time for a thought out position to pay dividends, if …
Wheat
Can wheat keep on running?……………….. Beans may be experiencing the old “Buy the rumor and sell the fact!”…………….Corn is stuck between the two…………………..Futures might rally and, spreads might widen and basis levels might be met with a lot of movement if they raise their heads as temporary storage stocks could be moving before Spring……………… We still sense that the …
Livestock Report
January Feeder Cattle failed in its attempt to pull away from the 200 DMA (147.575) today, crawling towards resistance at 148.40 and making the high below it at 148.175. It settled right at the 200 DMA forming a spinning top candle. This indicates indecision in the market as traders navigate long-term resistance. A confidence boosting rally above 148.40 could jettison …
Grain Spreads: Tariff Euphoria
Beans continue their upward ascent as announcements of China returning to the US market buying beans spiked spot bean contracts past summer highs to trade to 9.28 this morning. Like most other markets, beans pulled back by the close, settling just above a key trend line 919.2, closing at 9.20. A flash sales announcement of 110,000 metric tons of soybeans for …
AG TIME – Doesn’t Add Up
The soy complex has bounced a bit after the latest USDA numbers showing record carry domestically and record globally. This whole thing in my opinion does not add up. The Chinese apparently booked 500 ton of US beans. It is immaterial if they book 5 mmt of beans. The US will still have a minimum of 750 million bushels in …
Feeder Cattle Option Strategy
Feeder Cattle has a solid bid and going forward, in my opinion, can potentially rally to 151.00/151.5 area. I am looking at MARCH 2019 Feeder Cattle, 145.5 last as of this writing. Weight count per cow is 2 pounds less in 2018 than this time last year and demand is up as well, while the 2019 head count is around the …
Last Half of December
It appears that the market has discounted the large Brazilian bean crop coming to market in a few months as hopes are starting to increase that a trade agreement with China might be reached before the end of the “truce time” set to end in early March 2019……………………Nothing is certain yet new news could be seen as having a …
December Crop Report
December Crop Report The USDA releases its December 1 Supply/Demand tomorrow at 11:00 Chicago time! Historically, it’s a sleeper yet, surprises may occur and we treat all government reports as dangerous! But, if one was going into any report with an attitude that there shouldn’t be any surprises….the December report is the report to do it! World unrest continues and …
Livestock Report
February Lean Hogs broke down and traded to the lower end of its trading range, while the cattle markets rallied, trading to the upper part of their respective trading ranges. Lean Hogs tested the 200 DMA (65.10) today, trading to the low at 64.975 and settling just above the 200 DMA at 65.20. With positive news lacking on the trade …
Livestock Report
Strong cash cattle sales at 119.00 on a live basis and up to 187.00 for dressed on Friday couldn’t ignite futures today as cattle futures continued its lackluster trading. February Live Cattle pulled back to support at 120.75, making the low just above it at 120.775. A break down below support could see price move towards support at 119.15. A …