The following represent my personal thoughts. Right, wrong, or indifferent. There are no guarantees in life. Trading commodities is certainly no exception. It could actually be argued that it is one of the more difficult endeavors to find success. Such is life. That is why sometimes it takes a long time for a thought out position to pay dividends, if it ever does. I have been a bear in both the beans and the meal. It is my thought that perhaps we are at a change in the market. The market has rallied on thoughts of China resuming purchases. That has transpired. That now is old news. What bullish inputs remain, to my way of looking? The US is way behind in sales. The carry will remain a record. The global production, oilseeds in general, but also soy in South America is growing. The global carry is a record by far. FAR. There is nothing short of a natural disaster, or perhaps an act of the Almighty to change this course of events. What does that mean? One thing is that the soy complex, (beans and meal) have never been anywhere near this high with anything like this. It is my belief we are close to switching this to a bear soy market. A further day of weakness is needed for confirmation. Tomorrow may be that day. NO GUARANTEES ! Quantify your risk.
The corn has traded both sides. The wheat assisted early with strength. The corn weakness can be bought. Rallies need to be watched. This is not a chase market. Rather a slow steady grinder. The global fundamentals remain supportive. As I have said the feedgrains in general have some bullish input. This is a window that will close later in the year. For now, buy breaks looking for higher prices. Quantify your risk.
To discuss markets 800 993 5449, or jwalsh@walshtrading.com. A thank you to the Brazilian and Italian comments from good commercial folks. Keep up the good fight. A noble pursuit indeed.
” THERE IS NOTHING NOBLE IN BEING SUPERIOR TO YOUR FELLOW MAN, NOBILITY LIES IN BEING SUPERIOR TO YOUR FORMER SELF ” ERNEST HEMINGWAY
BE WELL