It appears that the market has discounted the large Brazilian bean crop coming to market in a few months as hopes are starting to increase that a trade agreement with China might be reached before the end of the “truce time” set to end in early March 2019……………………Nothing is certain yet new news could be seen as having a better chance of being bullish in the next two months as we’ve discounted the crop size and trade delays……………………………Yet, there’s a lot of crop to deal with and this might keep basis levels and spreads on the defensive through planting in the North
World wheat stocks remain tight and shipping disruptions off the Black Sea remain a concern…………Domestically, we’re more than comfortable with hard red wheat supplies and this might keep a lid on all wheat classes through the crop report in early January……………..Chicago has shown strength in spreads and is unnaturally above Kansas City…..all this should change before the onset of harvest activity in mid May yet, things might get crazier before getting better……………..Regardless, we see KWN/WN at anything less than even money as a chance to own Kansas City………………………..
Corn has been a steady performer the past two weeks as we’ve put the 2018/2019 crop away………………….Now we need to move the stocks in bags and piles before the Spring….This should keep basis levels and spreads on the defensive through March………………..
South American weather and the geopolitical happenings have a might continue to be major market forces through the end of the calendar year…………..As of this writing Britain still has a leading prime minister……………France isn’t burning………………….The Middle East isn’t as volatile as its been ………….Turkey, Greece and Italy are still financially viable…….and our Federal Reserve meets next week and the trade anticipates a moderating pace from our financial engineers……………………………
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited
within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
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