Our first full trading week of 2019 appears to be starting  without the benefit of USDA data and analysis……………Will we survive? The attitude among analysts is that corn and bean production could be a little lower from the figures released in November…………..Winter wheat seeding could be down from the 2018 figure by 2 to 5% and carryover projections and …

In my opinion Cotton can potentially move lower toward 67.00 as bearish indicators persist. March Cotton last as of this writing is 71.48. China has not bought US Cotton since the tariffs have started and  there are concerns that even with a solid yield in US crops, some areas Cotton quality isn’t as good pushing any other potential buyers away …

February Live Cattle continued its downward trek today piercing support at 122.825 and making the session low at 122.35. It was able to bounce from here and settled at 123.225. A break down below the Thursday low could see price test support at 120.75. If settlement holds and the 123.875 high is taken out price could revisit the 124.95 high. …

Looking at the weekly continuous soy meal chart tells me that a sizable percentage move in this market maybe on the horizon. This comes as funds who were long most of 2018 flipped from a once sizable long position (pre-tariff) to a light net short by late November. Still the market has held a key trendline coming up the page …

                                There are problems developing with South American weather as Argentina remains too wet to get the final 25% of the wheat crop harvested and there are regions in Uruguay, Paraguay and Brazil which are getting too much rain and/or too little rain which is a mild concern as the bean crop has been enjoying great weather until the past …

                                The weather in South America is getting a little sour and that might generate a little more interest for getting end users to accumulate some  beans and wheat..Hopefully, a downturn in the potential  for an increase in the  world supply of oilseeds will get China and the US to find an agreement to the trade deal…………….and all the unicorns …

In my opinion Cocoa can potentially rally further. May futures 2,415 last of this writing, even with the 2018 rally of almost 23% I am looking at a potential of 2,600 to 2,650 in May Cocoa.  Issues with hot dry weather effecting both late main crop and mid crop production. An El Nino weather event potential, pod eating caterpillars effecting …

                                                It is first notice day on January beans and products on Monday and we do close early for New Years Eve and will be closed all day on Tuesday……..The new trading year begins on Wednesday and the new Congress convenes on Thursday………………..It’s amazing we survived without the non essential government employees………..some might like a continuation of that situation but, …

In my opinion Treasuries are set to potentially move higher. Fundamentals point to lower yields as the Fed backs off the tightening they did through 2018, weak home sales also can potentially slow up the economy, also the Fed will potentially  ease up on quantitative tightening. I am looking for the 10y future to potentially rally toward 124.00 I suggest …

I find much of the market perplexing. There are things that don’t add up, in my humble opinion. The soy complex is so oversupplied. The market has never had a supply like this. Unprecedented. Yet, prices are still high relative to the historic norm. Not my norm. The norm in the market. Based on stocks to usage and carry numbers. …