I would like to say that expensive and or cheap has no reality in the marketplace. The markets will seek a level either up or down that in is line with the overall supply relative to demand from a historic perspective. That is not to say that there aren’t times of erratic movement; there are. It is, however, my opinion …
AG TIME
The soy continues its decline. There are some things to consider here. My personal long term target for beans is $7.70. We are within 5% of that at present. Close enough for government work as they say. Perhaps we go a bit lower. My point – I think the markets will stabilize in this range and are due some rally. …
AG TIME – Vindication
The USDA report today offers a realistic look as to where we are in my opinion. The numbers across the board are bearish. And long term bearish. The market is due a rally, however, this should be met with a thought of an opportunity to hedge production. The domestic carry was raised to 580 for 2018/2019. This is due to …
AG TIME – Report day tomorrow
The market again down sharply. The talk from Trump is heating up as expected. A couple things in my opinion. The bean market was way overvalued based on the numbers. The rhetoric is cited as the reason. Perhaps it sped things up. It is my belief we were coming here anyway. A long term thought. It is my belief this …
AG TIME
Today my commentary is more general in nature. I will wait to see the USDA report on thursday. It is my belief there are some things that are out of whack. First the 2017/18 bean carry should remain above 500 million. The 2018 is working in that direction. It seems unlikely that the demand for export can stay at 2,290 …
AG TIME – Macro changes
The soy under pressure led by meal. This may be the beginning of something. The meal has been the strongest part of the soy. This has driven oil share down to 30% and the crush margins near record price. The global landscape will shift from a tight meal market ( although I question this was ever the case), to a …
AG TIME – Who will blink?
The beans were under pressure yet again. The concern over the tariff situation continues. There are only 12 short hours till the implementation. Will someone blink. The psychology of this is the meaningful aspect. If the tariffs are put in place it will still be 2-3 months before they are finalized. It is still my belief that the actual implementation …
AG TIME – Do stocks to usage count any more?
The bean market down yet again. The weather remains fairly beneficial. The title here today is what I am attempting to figure out. It is my belief that the markets can act irrational for a period of time. It is also my belief that the markets ultimately are driven by the supply and demand. The stocks to usage ratio is …
AG TIME
The soy continues under pressure. The 6th is the deadline for China and the US. This whole scenario has shifted some scenarios into play. First the markets in my opinion are over supplied. Given the weather, the global carry, prices were due this break. Trump will play hard ball if China does not give on the trade imbalance. I really …
AG TIME short and long term
The USDA report out of the way. There were no major surprises, just confirmations of what is known. The soybean stocks are confirmed a record at this time. This is of course significant and is a continuation of the growth in oilseed stocks in general. This stock number is not due to China. Rather production growth. The acreage was increased …