MACRO BACKDROP: Welcome back. Holidays are nigh, folks. That said, the equities were anything but jovial today, it seems. The red had nothing to do with Santa Claus or some reindeer’s nose. European news and China were probably less of a focal point in domestic markets today. Stocks across the board were sold off, bleeding hard. Weaker U.S. economic …
Livestock Report
Cattle markets broke down today as steady cash trade on Friday fails to impress. March Feeder Cattle broke down past support at 143.50 and traded down to the December 4th low at 143.125 on the continuous chart. It settled nearby at 143.325. A new low on Tuesday could see price test support at 142.40. A panic sell could see price …
AG TIME – Time is Running Out
The soy bouncing a bit here today led by meal. The thought again the Chinese could buy more beans. They need to. There is something amiss here. The market is so oversupplied. And overpriced in my way of thought. We are fast approaching Brazilian harvest. Oh wait, the market wants to focus on the dry area of Brazil and the …
Grain Spreads: Old Crop/New Crop..Kc/Chicago wheat
It was about as dull a close for grains to end this week as one could of asked for today. A higher Dollar and a very weak and volatile stock market were two of the culprits that spurred liquidation of wheat, corn, and beans into the close. Soy meal (see chart) has no friends and maybe being pulled lower due …
March 2019 Crude Oil Options
Crude Oil fundamentals are still pointing lower in my opinion, US fracking companies are pumping at their highs and OPEC is fracturing apart. Regardless of OPEC’S production cuts, some non OPEC countries are pumping at or near their highs. Data from the EIA shows solid stockpiles of crude oil. Also providing stability to the oil outlook in my view is …
End of the Year
Hopefully, we’ll be talking about a new trade agreement with China next week as it is nice to see the USDA announcements this morning of bean sales to China and corn to Japan………..We need to get a move on as the weather in South America is still very good and the bean crop in Brazil has the potential to …
AG TIME – Perhaps it is Time
The following represent my personal thoughts. Right, wrong, or indifferent. There are no guarantees in life. Trading commodities is certainly no exception. It could actually be argued that it is one of the more difficult endeavors to find success. Such is life. That is why sometimes it takes a long time for a thought out position to pay dividends, if …
Wheat
Can wheat keep on running?……………….. Beans may be experiencing the old “Buy the rumor and sell the fact!”…………….Corn is stuck between the two…………………..Futures might rally and, spreads might widen and basis levels might be met with a lot of movement if they raise their heads as temporary storage stocks could be moving before Spring……………… We still sense that the …
Livestock Report
January Feeder Cattle failed in its attempt to pull away from the 200 DMA (147.575) today, crawling towards resistance at 148.40 and making the high below it at 148.175. It settled right at the 200 DMA forming a spinning top candle. This indicates indecision in the market as traders navigate long-term resistance. A confidence boosting rally above 148.40 could jettison …
Grain Spreads: Tariff Euphoria
Beans continue their upward ascent as announcements of China returning to the US market buying beans spiked spot bean contracts past summer highs to trade to 9.28 this morning. Like most other markets, beans pulled back by the close, settling just above a key trend line 919.2, closing at 9.20. A flash sales announcement of 110,000 metric tons of soybeans for …