The soy bouncing a bit here today led by meal. The thought again the Chinese could buy more beans. They need to. There is something amiss here. The market is so oversupplied. And overpriced in my way of thought. We are fast approaching Brazilian harvest. Oh wait, the market wants to focus on the dry area of Brazil and the wet area of Argentina! Minor issues in my opinion. The reality – way over supplied. The other question I have. There has been alot of talk about acreage shifts. In my opinion the current new crop price relationship corn vs beans at 2.4-1 does not get that done. The world is awash in soy and protein. Difficult to argue. The board at some point should show a price that is reflective. Perhaps we are entering a new phase. Numbers don’t matter. I don’t believe that, just sarcasm. Use rallies to hedge in my opinion. Look for the corn to gain on beans over time. That is a relative thought not based on flat price.
The corn was lack luster. I am not sure why. The wild card here could be if, and I say if, the Chinese start buying feedgrains. Their stocks would not indicate a need. However, there are predictions they will want corn. This could prove friendly for a run if it transpires. I believe corn has more upside. Quantify a risk. Buy futures and or sell puts. There are combo trades – call for specifics.
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