April Lean Hogs continued to rally on Monday, March 11, 2019. It broke out above the 200 DMA (61.31) and nearby resistance at 61.80 nearly going up limit for the second trading session in a row. It made its high at 63.50, just above the 63.325 resistance level before falling back and settling below resistance at 62.85. Continued excitement could …
Livestock Report
April Lean Hogs rallied today going up limit at the end of the trading session. It passed the 100 DMA at 60.565 reaching the high at 60.725. It settled at 60.55. Follow through to the upside could see resistance tested at the 200 DMA at 61.375 and then 61.80. If momentum can push [rice above 61.80, a test of the …
Grain Spreads: Shorts Press Amid WASDE…Looking for Bottoms
Major short in the grain market: Positioning into this week below. Funds continue to sell rallies in the grain complex amid weak demand and excess supply. That can change moving forward with weather being the key reason as we slowly move into Spring planting in the weeks to come. The catch up CFTC Commitment of Traders report (CoT) showed that …
AG TIME – Report Day
The USDA report saw little in the way of change. There may be much to take away from this. The soy carry reduced 10 million bu on an increased crush. Let me point out that the exports are left unchanged ? Really ? The Chinese imports were left at 88 mmt. This is 3 mmt higher that the Chinese ag …
Bean Vol Trade
Bean Vol trade Going into the report tomorrow volatility is Jacked. Not just the report but several factors. 1st the report 2nd unemployment 3rd and most influential in my opinion is the rumor that China will take tariffs off over the weekend. All factors lead to HIGH volatility. If the RUMOR does materialize over the weekend Monday could see big …
AG TIME tough to overcome
The soy broke today led by meal. The USDA will release updated stocks this friday. It is difficult in my thought , a way to see a real reduction in carry. The demand remains overstated. The Chinese numbers should continue to decline. This while they are culling animals. Up to 20% of the breeding stock ( hogs ) is being …
Grain Spreads: Shorts Pressing, Corn Dec 19/Dec20
Major short in the grain market: Positioning below. Funds continue to sell rallies in the grain complex amid weak demand and excess supply. That can change moving forward with weather being the key reasons as we slowly move into Spring in the weeks to come. The catch up CFTC Commitment of Traders report (CoT) showed that Managed Money was short …
Bonds Vol Opp.
Bond Vol Put spread swap Volatility is elevated going into unemployment. The recent rally is bonds must be noted with light volume. To take advantage of the elevated volatility with a down side bias one could sell week 3 144/143 put spread for 13/64. Buy Apr week 1 144.5/143 put spread 31/64 for net 18/64 debit. Volatility should collapse after …
Livestock Report
April Live Cattle held support at 128.10 for the second day in a row, making the low at the support level. It was a quiet trading session as the market traded to about the middle of Monday’s range and settled at 128.825. Cash traded on Monday at 205.00 on a dressed basis and 128.50 for live cattle. Volume is light …
Gold
Gold Even with the recent move lower in Gold price some say that the Gold is oversold. There have been recent developments to support the move lower. Positive trade war talks, strong US dollar. In my opinion based on the global production increased in most Gold producing countries. Australia’s production hit an all-time high of 317 breaking at 21 year …