April Lean Hogs continued its consolidation on Thursday. It is now trading in the upper part of its 85.575 – 83.15 trading Range. Thursday’s range was 85.30 – 84.35 with settlement at 85.025, forming another narrow body and narrow range day. Settlement was above the 8-DMA now at 84.70 with the high below resistance at 85.325. The cash markets continue to grind higher which gives producers hope of getting to profitability. Slaughter is declining with weights slightly higher. In fact, last year’s weights moved closer to this week as it increased more than this past week. The week ending 3/9/24 saw weights at 287.6 up .3 # from last week while last years weights came in at 287.1 # up from 285.9 # the week prior. Production is starting to decline from last year and with slaughter down, maybe the USDA had it wrong about hog supplies going into spring. January and February saw slaughter levels higher than the previous year and now we are seeing the opposite, so far. This bodes well for a continued rally into the spring time as traders likely expected stronger production out of hogs and lower numbers this early could imply smaller numbers going forward. If Hogs can take out resistance 85.325, it could move towards resistance at 87.10. A failure from settlement could see price test support at 83.325, putting Hogs in the lower end of its trading range.
The Pork Cutout Index ticked higher and is at 92.19 as of 03/13/2024.
The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 82.02 as of 03/12/2024.
Estimated Slaughter for Thursday is 467,000, which is below last week’s 474,000 and last year’s 78,325. Wednesday’s slaughter was revised lower to 486,000. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 1,892,000, which is below last week’s 1,909,000 and last year’s 1,930,000.
For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, March 19, 2024, at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
tested support at the
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall not be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.