3/13/24
The Livestock and Grain Markets were mixed today, and they are about to start moving. The Cattle Markets continued to climb today. April’24 Live Cattle were 1.675 higher today and settled at 189.925, just below today’s high of 190.000, which is also the new 1-month high. Today’s low was 188.050 and the 1-month low is 182.825. Since 2/13 April’24 Live Cattle are 4.825 higher or just over 2 ½%. The Feeders also gained again today. April’24 Feeder Cattle were 1.725 higher today and settled at 255.850, just below today’s high of 255.925. The 1-month high is 260.800. Toda’s low was 253.625 and the 1-month low is 247.150. Since 2/13 April’24 Feeder Cattle are 4.100 higher or over 1 ½%. The Hogs dropped a little today. April’24 Lean Hogs were 0.475 lower today and settled at 84.875, not far below today’s high of 85.025. The 1-month high is 88.900. Today’s low was 83.925 and the 1-month low is 81.250. Since 2/13 April’24 Lean Hogs are 3.800 higher or over 4 ½%. The Grain Markets have been volatile, and I don’t expect that to change anytime soon. Today May’24 Soybeans were ¾ of a cent higher and settled at 1196 ¾. Today’s high and the 1-month high is 1199 ¼. Today’s low was 1182 ¾ and the 1-month low is 1128 ½. Since 2/13 May’24 Soybeans are 5 cents higher or almost ½%. The Corn Market was fractionally lower today. May’24 Corn was ½ a cent lower today and settled at 441 ¼. Today’s high was 444 ½ and the 1-month high is 445. Today’s low was 438 ¼ and the 1-month low and 52-week low is 408 ¾. Since 2/13 May’24 Corn is 2 cents lower or almost ½%. The Wheat Market was a little lower today but rallied from off the lows. May’24 Wheat was 3 ¼ cents lower today and settled at 544 ¼, in the middle of today’s trading range. Today’s high was 554 and the 1-month high is 5797 ¼. Today’s low was 536 ¾ and the 1-month low is 523 ½. Since 2/13 May’24 Wheat is 52 ¾ cents lower or almost 9%. The Cattle Markets continued to climb today, and I still see that as opportunity. April’24 Live Cattle had a new 1-month high today, and I don’t see too much upside left. It’s getting expensive. The numbers might me a little tight, but the feed lots are full, and the weights are up. The packers are importing 3 million cattle, and I don’t see the demand lasting through the summer. The charts are still similar to 2014-2015, and what happened then. If the packers stop buying at these prices, it will not be good. Protect your downside exposure. The Grains look like they can continue to rally in the short term, but I am still Bearish long-term. May’24 Soybeans made a new 1-month high today at 1199 ¼. After looking at the charts and moving averages, it looks like the Beans could break out and rally in the short term to the $12.60 level. Along with dryness concerns in parts of Brazil, and a cut in the Soybean estimates. If that were to occur, I would recommend selling the differed months. We will get planting intentions at the end of the month, and I expect more acres being switched from Corn and Wheat into Soybeans than expected. This along with the 315 million carryovers, and still a large Soybean crop coming out of South America, I feel the Soybean market will break significantly by harvest time, unless there is a severe drought here. I feel that the shift of planting Corn into Soybeans will stabilize the Corn market, and a rally could occur. If Corn was able to rally to the $5.00 level, I feel that would be a good level to start selling. Today’s high in May’24 Corn was ½ a cent short of the 1-month high of 445. The Wheat market has been all over the place. After the recent 70+ cent break down to a new 52-week low at 523 ½, May’24 Wheat has rallied 20 ¾ cents. The Wheat Market is its own animal and moves when it wants to. I would keep an eye on any news coming out of the Black Sea region. I think these markets are about to move a lot, and I want everyone to be prepared for that. If you would like more specific and detailed information, give me a call or send me an email.
-Bill
I have market commentary and Option charts in Pure Hedge – Livestock
Pure Hedge – Grain at WWW.WALSHTRADING.COM
Call for specific trade recommendations.
1-312-957-8079
Email me for free research.
Bill Allen
Senior Account Executive
Direct: 1 312 957 8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
53 West Jackson Boulevard, Suite 750
Chicago, Illinois 60604
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.