In my opinion funds have enjoyed a prosperous 2019 so far building and amassing shorts on rallies especially in corn and and wheat. In my estimation managed money shorts in corn pushed out to 220 K, and in all wheat classes 130 K. They are short beans and meal, but to a lesser percentage. It is interesting that you have …
Time of the Season
We need a lot of days of below normal precipitation to dry out Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin to prepare for corn plantings. The NOAA recent flood advisory map of those states doesn’t look so good as per getting the crop in early. On the other hand the aquifers are getting a much welcomed fill up. As stated in previous …
AG TIME
Mixed bag today. The soy was a bit lower led by soy oil. The palm oil has broken this week with some future changes in the blending rate. The reality (imo) for 2019 is that the palm could appreciate. The usage indicates a production deficit for the year. The stocks have been ample, however, so price increases won’t be explosive. …
Weather Focus Ahead
There appears to be old crop quality concerns with the wheat market yet, new crop looks good in both Europe and the U.S.. Funds are short with an edge but if anyone wants to get out there’s a lot of room to the upside as producers/farmers need to see a massive rally and/or get to harvest before considering selling. …
Livestock Report
April Feeder Cattle and April Live cattle consolidated within yesterday’s trading ranges. If April Feeder Cattle breaks down below 143.75, a test of support is possible at 142.425. Support then comes in at 140.775. If 143.75 hold, more consolidation is possible. If April Live Cattle breaks down below 125.80, a test of support at 124.30 is possible. The rising 100 …
Grain Spreads: Simplicity
I’m going to keep it short and to the point today. A couple very short term bets and long term view on grains with some inexpensive trades that to me make some sense. Corn : Reasons for rally:potential Bullish Seasonal (April-June). 200 K shorts in market according to COT data and recent open interest. Is China buying on trade deal? …
Weather Focus Time
There’s still a bad attitude, nervousness, anxiety over the state of world trade. Brexit and how things fall out….The Chinese trade deal on and/or off……….Central banks reacting to what happens to other EU nations depending on the outcome of the Brexit sabotage……….But, in the grain markets it comes down to weather and it appears that the Heartland …
Livestock Report
April Live Cattle took one on the chin today and nearly went down for the count, missing out on a down limit move by .325. It settled at 126.65, just above support 126.625. Once support was breached at 128.10, long positions went into take profits mode and the selloff gained steam pushing price just past the critical support level and …
AG TIME
The talk today was that there is progress in the China / US saga. The progress is essential. But, what will the real scenario be. I am confident there will be positives, however, not all will be bullish once the deal is over. The next rally if it transpires is a rally to sell in beans. The current fundamentals are …
A Long Way to Go
Winter wheat is starting to break dormancy. There is a lot of growing season ahead of us before we start harvesting in mid Texas in mid May and finish up in Michigan in mid July. How we break dormancy, frosts in early May, too wet or too dry at different times of development will have a drastic impact on …