Mixed bag today. The soy was a bit lower led by soy oil. The palm oil has broken this week with some future changes in the blending rate. The reality (imo) for 2019 is that the palm could appreciate. The usage indicates a production deficit for the year. The stocks have been ample, however, so price increases won’t be explosive. The soyoil usage globally remains strong as bio fuels are on the rise. The usage through the year will stay strong. I look for oilshare to remain supported and to show increases. The meal relationship is important. At present the market is not focused enough on the Chinese contraction, due to ASF. In addition, China cancelling canola from Canada could push canola meal into the US, further oversupplying the protein market. I remain bearish the soy, especially as it relates to beans and meal. The next question will be acreage. The current outlook extends for 15 days. The outlook today keeps the central belt wet. Not sure how all the beans will go to corn. This could be significant.
The Corn follows through to the upside. Not explosive. Talk of Chinese buying Corn and DDG of the PNW. This is important if and when confirmed. Actually on a couple levels. This would be a new scenario. In addition this could have an impact on the US balance sheet. The weather remains a concern for corn planting. The outlook is not helpful. This must be monitored. The corn has had competition of late and will. The SA crops are improving and will be available. There was some conversation the Black Sea would store corn. One concern I put forth is the fact China holds such a large share of the global corn stocks. This could create a large imbalance if there is ever a change in numbers. I am not predicting that rather offering a discussion. The corn needs to do some upside work to confirm a tech bottom. The scenario may exist for the possibility of further gains.
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