There’s still a bad attitude, nervousness, anxiety over the state of world trade. Brexit and how things fall out….The Chinese trade deal on and/or off……….Central banks reacting to what happens to other EU nations depending on the outcome of the Brexit sabotage……….But, in the grain markets it comes down to weather and it appears that the Heartland may be enjoying some normal conditions in the next two weeks. Of course, we will be sensitive to any variation as we approach corn and bean planting and winter wheat development and harvest.
Regardless, there has to be some hope for the producer to plant and care for the crops and at present values there are long faces in the country. Keep an eye on weather forecasts as any variation from the norm in the next six weeks may spark sharp rallies in corn and wheat. Beans may follow along yet they’ll be the last to take off as there’s more time to add to these acres..
Flat price could remain choppy through the end of the month as we are in the twilight zone. Basis levels suggest that there’s no reason to panic on corn and bean spreads. Wheat spreads are still jumpy! Kansas City could continue gaining on Chicago and the December contracts could go back to normalcy with KC enjoying a healthy premium to Chicago. We still like WN/WU and WZ/WU and could consider substituting KWZ for WZ. Minneapolis strength/weakness is dependent on weather and planting. We’ll be keeping an eye on weather forecasts for a couple of months…………..
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
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