Winter wheat is starting to break dormancy. There is a lot of growing season ahead of us before we start harvesting in mid Texas in mid May and finish up in Michigan in mid July. How we break dormancy, frosts in early May, too wet or too dry at different times of development will have a drastic impact on production. Given the lowest acreage in decades leaves little room for error. Funds are short and have money in their pockets while farmers are long in the field while bakers and millers are using the market to protect their margins. There’s a long way to go and a lot of assumptions from the fund shorts that everything is going to be copacetic during the growing season. There might be a sharp rally or two in the next few months to test the resolve of the speculative community. Spreads still suggest that we need…..really need…..a good quality winter wheat crop in 2019/2020. We’ll see!
Corn and bean spreads are still lethargic as stocks are comfortable and producers need to move on farm stocks prior to getting into planting. Prices might not be high enough to entice and excite more corn acres yet they will be sowing soybeans.
The USDA will start reporting on planting progress in April but the states will be putting out some information before that. We’ll try to keep you informed. We’re looking forward to an interesting growing season
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
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