Grains may start getting more interest in the trading community next week as the reality of growing season is here and the potential exists for some production problems as the northwestern third of the Heartland is very soggy and the fear of planting delays and/or loss may spark a premium for the rest of the season. It is the …
Respect the USDA
The weather is forefront in our mindset. Yet, we’re reluctant to panic as there’s ample time for conditions to improve. We usually plant 80% of the corn crop in the April 20-May 10 window. The old euphemisms like “rain makes grain” might be applicable this year if we get the crop planted on time or the phrase “plant in …
Livestock Report
The Hog market continued its run higher today making limit moves throughout the complex that expires in 2019. The lead contract (June) reached the 90 handle, an area not seen since June 2016. That high was 90.425, which is the resistance level that June Hogs is currently challenging. The high today was 90.25 and the only reason the June 2016 …
Grain Spreads: Springtime
Floods, cresting rivers, fields drowned out, and a water logged Western and Northern grain belt highlight the condition in much of the Midwest. Its the 1st day of spring, and while planting conditions seem a long way off, there’s not going to be much worry about that on March 20th. If conditions don’t improve in the weeks ahead, then the …
Reports Next Friday
It appears that the grain markets are stuck as farmers are long, funds are short, end users are comfortably covered and there’s a lot of uncertainty in central bank and European Union policies in the short run which may be keeping small speculators on the sidelines. The weather is not cooperating with plantings yet, there’s ample time to get …
Livestock Report
June Lean Hogs consolidated within the Monday trading range as profit taking took over and Hogs rested. Resistance remains at 88.175 and then 90.425. Support is at 85.375 and then 83.975. June is now the lead contract in Live Cattle. It rallied early and made a new life of contract high at 124.225. Looking at the continuous chart, June stopped …
May Crude Oil Futures and Options Strategy
Following the bullish trend in Crude Oil the May futures contract last at 59.34 can rally to potentially 62.00 and potentially 66.00 in my opinion. Buying futures at this level, 59.34 and risking $1000 of quantifiable risk plus fees and associated costs per transaction to enter the trade, risk is a loss of premium and fees, this puts the stop …
Stay Calm/All is Well
The media is focusing on the soggy conditions in the northwestern quadrant of the corn belt and it does appear that we’ll have a difficult time getting the corn crop in on time this Spring if we get it in, at all! If we get it in the ground there’s abundant top and sub soil supplies to sustain it …
Livestock Report
June Lean Hogs opened strong, gap opening higher and trading to the session high at 88.875, which is just above resistance at 88.175. It collapsed and traded down to the session low at 85.325. It spent the rest of the session consolidating before an end of day rally took price up to 87.95 and it settled nearby at 87.80. The …
Weather Sensitive
Funds continue to stay in their short position in grains. End users have taken coverage for a couple of months while producers remain the chief long. It’s a stalemate as we might have to wait until harvest in wheat to see which side is right. Producers might be selling at harvest but, they’re not going to lock in a …