1-5DAY – There are no significant changes here. The GFS rainfall shield appears to be more solid whereas the European rainfall shield over the next five days has more gaps across portions of Missouri and Illinois.
6-10 DAY – We have much better model agreement this afternoon between the Canadian, GFS and European models. All the models shows significant rain and in some cases heavy rain moving into all of the Plains and a good portion of the WCB during the 6 to 10 day. However all three models also show a very sharp line between rain and no rain which I have drawn in a thick black line. This line runs from eastern TX into central MO, eastern IA and then into eastern WI. All locations to the east of that Line = are essentially dry for the entire 6 to 10 day interval. All locations west of that line are much much wetter.
This trend is also upheld on the 6-10 DAY ensembles which again show a very sharp dividing line between the significant rain and very dry conditions.
11-15 DAY – What is significant in the 11 to 15 DAY is that GFS, European and Canadian models are wetter than they were from this morning and from Monday. They have more rain with wide coverage and the max rainfall amounts continue to go up on these models. The European has the heaviest rains over northeastern Texas, the eastern half of Oklahoma, southern Arkansas and southwest Missouri whereas the Canadian and GFS models have the heaviest rains over northwest Missouri, southern Iowa, all of Nebraska into northeastern Kansas.
CPC FORECAST MAPS — 6-10 DAY
In the official CPC 6 to 10 day forecast RAINFALL shows Below Normal rainfall over all of the eastern third of the CONUS including the ECB and Delta. But the WCB and Plains regions are now in the Above Normal rainfall area. The northern Rockies and Pacific NW areas are in Much Above Normal Rainfall area. With respect to Temperatures … the entire Western US Coast is in Much Below Normal areas because of that massive trough in the Jet Stream . Above Normal temperatures are common over all of the Plains and WCB and Near Normal over the ECB, Middle Atlantic and New England.
CPC FORECAST – MAPS — 8-14 DAY
Shows some significant changes. RAINFALL – All of the western third of the CONUS as well as all of the Plains and all of the Midwest are in the Above Normal rainfall area. To the west, all the Rockies as well as the entire West Coast is in the Above OR Much Above Normal rainfall area. TEMPS — the entire eastern 2/3 of the country from the Rockies eastward to the East Coast shows Above Normal or Much Above Normal temperatures while all the western third of the country from the Rockies to the West Coast is in the Below or Much Below Normal temperature area.
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