Recent published studies indicate that the USDA is getting more reliable and accurate with September production and supply/demand estimates when compared with the final figures…………..Just another reason that the USDA should be respected and the report on Wednesday approached with respect and caution……………….. When compared with the August figures over the last twenty years the final corn production figures were …
Tasks at Hand
The USDA will issue new production and supply/demand estimates next Wednesday at 11:00 am Chicago time…………………Trade estimates are being released and it appears that the expectation is for the bean crop to be larger than the previous USDA estimate in August while the corn crop could be very close to the August estimate…………….Carry over projections in both domestic and international …
AG TIME – What are People Thinking?
The soy lower today. Moderately so. I don’t have a lot to say today. There is a lot baked in the cake. The US crop is finishing in a very positive light. It seems probable, based on private estimates, that the bean yield will increase from the last USDA report. This is significant as the SA planting is underway. The …
Getting into the Weeds!
The lack of deliveries of soft red wheat this morning could suggest that there is concern over the quality of the 2018/2019 harvest…………………..The CME contract is imperfect in the sense that millers fear receiving the 4 parts per million vomitoxin stocks at a 25 cent discount and not the FDA friendly grade of #2 SRW in order to make the …
End of the Month Positioning
In my opinion it just feels like a short covering bounce in corn and beans after the August slide as the weather still appears to be conducive for allowing the crop to get larger………….Crop tours are still reporting that yield potential may exceed the estimates the USDA issued in August. First notice day on the September futures tomorrow………. Wheat is …
Scale Down
In my view we’re enjoying a fantastic finish of the growing season for corn and beans and the National Weather Service is calling for slightly warmer and wetter than normal conditions in the Heartland in its 6 to 10 day forecast. The state by state condition reports usually receive less emphasis as crops near harvest in my opinion. The market …
Cattle – Wall of Demand?
Good Day Producers and Speculators, The comments below are all my opinions. If you are trading always use a risk stop or the risk can become uncontrollable. These are volatile markets. So let’s recap as we assess the impact of when markets hit these olive extreme’s like 3 weeks ago down by previous months lows. We were looking for a monthly reversal up to buy KWU 4.73, CZ …
AG TIME
The story remains the same. The meal is leading the soy complex while the large crush pace pressures the bean oil. The oilshare continues to decline at 27.2%. In addition, the meal relative to beans is approaching historic highs. The question is what price either shuts down demand, although not really the issue in my opinion. Or offers other price …
Farmers see KC wheat explode 50c
Good Mid-week Speculators, First it’s wild how when I take time off over decades that markets tend to move vertically (good, fast)and here we had end-of-month buying in KC wheat now up what? 50 cents from last week low in that overnight, down 1% cleaning as much as the HFT rats could stop out. KC $7.00? why not? But rocky soon. …
Grain Spreads – Minneapolis Wheat Futures Spread 2018
Last year this spread traded to a six cent carry to a 90 cent inversion. That’s a $4800 move with one spread. I suggest buying this spread on two fronts. 1. Technically we filled a gap this week from the breakout that began last spring. The spread ran out of sellers at a 6 cent carry and we have seen …