The soy is experiencing a quiet day overall. The market is digesting the recent break and perhaps consolidating for a minute. The weather looks conducive to bringing home a very large soybean crop. The reality is that we have priced in a realistic price relative to the historic numbers. My contention is that the prices are supposed to move to …
AG TIME – What’s Next?
The beans continued the rally. The EU announcement is viewed as positive. The weather may offer some dry areas. Also, there is some speculation that perhaps the Chinese will be forced to settle. Ultimately I believe that is the case, however, it may take a bit of pain first. In the meantime, it is my contention that there are some …
AG TIME – Good Things Coming
The beans traded both sides. Tomorrow is the USDA report. All the ex bulls now think the market can’t rebound due to the lack of dialogue with China. Perhaps they are correct. The market has broken a lot. I have expected that. I believe it may be the wrong time of year to press the short side. Don’t misunderstand – …
AG TIME – Bear on the Move
The soy was led lower by beans and meal today. After review of the USDA report yesterday. I must say that I was not bullish the bean numbers. To the contrary. I see some real potential mistakes. First, it is probable that the USDA has over stated the exports by 50-100 mil bu. I don’t buy the story the Chinese …
AG TIME – IT MAY PAY TO BE CONTRARIAN
The USDA released their report. The screams of bullishness. It is important to separate the beans from corn here, because I feel much differently about them. The USDA added to the global carry, now 92 mmt. Huge. The new crop is reduced to 87 mmt. I have some issues with this and really am questioning the reasoning behind this. The …
AG TIME – JUST MARKING TIME
The funds were buyers today on “turn around Tuesday.” The markets made an attempt to rebound after yesterday’s trouncing. A couple factors to watch. The dollar continues to exhibit strength. Considering the record tax intake to the Treasury, the economic outlook continues to impress. This should continue to fuel strength in the US dollar. This will impact the AG sector …
Ag Commentary
Soy Complex The soy complex exhibited further weakness today. The market continues to digest the USDA numbers which were decidedly bearish. Not only the potential planted acreage was larger than anticipated, but also the stock number was larger as well. This indicates a larger crop than last year. The trend continues of higher yields due to genetics. This trend remains …
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