AG TIME – What are People Thinking?

John WalshGrains

The soy lower today. Moderately so. I don’t have a lot to say today. There is a lot baked in the cake. The US crop is finishing in a very positive light. It seems probable, based on private estimates, that the bean yield will increase from the last USDA report. This is significant as the SA planting is underway. The common belief is that the Brazilian acreage will increase on the year. For various reasons. The one aspect of the market that I find perplexing is the lack of overall interest in The China pig issue with the African flu. This to me is significant. The 9th case reported today. The UN has called an emergency meeting with surrounding countries and China to attempt to curtail the spread. This is my theory – it is not if, but when, this really becomes a problem. It does not appear China has the correct procedures for safety in place. This remains to be seen. It just appears to me that this could potentially have a major impact.

The corn was down today. The wheat remains under pressure. The wheats ability to rally may be a bit early. The corn however, in my opinion, has a nice story that lasts into the new year. The US will play a role in the export market. The USDA report is a key element next week. It is a question as to the final yield. The implications to corn could be very significant.

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