The meal rallied today. The thought of Argentina putting an export tax on beans is pushing meal. This to me does not make sense. The US harvest is upon us and the size of the crop will allow Argentina, and any one else for that matter, to buy beans, import and crush for profit. The world is awash with a …
AG TIME – Is it Time?
The beans were up but did not follow through. The condition ratings were unchanged. I am noticing some structural things to be aware of. The meal, although higher, the bear spreads are working again. This may be important. Also the oil spreads are attempting to stabilize. It will be important to watch the Indian monsoons. It is my belief we …
AG TIME – What’s Next?
The beans continued the rally. The EU announcement is viewed as positive. The weather may offer some dry areas. Also, there is some speculation that perhaps the Chinese will be forced to settle. Ultimately I believe that is the case, however, it may take a bit of pain first. In the meantime, it is my contention that there are some …
AG TIME – And Now We Wait
The Soy markets are biding time now. The beans have bounced a bit. This could continue with a further reduction in ratings. The bean ratings, like corn, are in a high end of the condition ratings from a historic perspective. My personal upside potential without a real problem is 865-880 basis Aug. For the record that should push Nov 19 …
AG TIME – Macro changes
The soy under pressure led by meal. This may be the beginning of something. The meal has been the strongest part of the soy. This has driven oil share down to 30% and the crush margins near record price. The global landscape will shift from a tight meal market ( although I question this was ever the case), to a …
AG TIME
The soy continues under pressure. The 6th is the deadline for China and the US. This whole scenario has shifted some scenarios into play. First the markets in my opinion are over supplied. Given the weather, the global carry, prices were due this break. Trump will play hard ball if China does not give on the trade imbalance. I really …
AG TIME – Good Things Coming
The beans traded both sides. Tomorrow is the USDA report. All the ex bulls now think the market can’t rebound due to the lack of dialogue with China. Perhaps they are correct. The market has broken a lot. I have expected that. I believe it may be the wrong time of year to press the short side. Don’t misunderstand – …
AG TIME
A two sided trade today in beans. The acreage is the next important aspect. The weather has been very ideal. Although it is important to note that the wet weather may be causing some concerns in some areas. This may be nothing in the long run. There is a suggestion of some heat coming in. This will be monitored closely. …
AG TIME – Bear on the Move
The soy was led lower by beans and meal today. After review of the USDA report yesterday. I must say that I was not bullish the bean numbers. To the contrary. I see some real potential mistakes. First, it is probable that the USDA has over stated the exports by 50-100 mil bu. I don’t buy the story the Chinese …
AG TIME
The soy was weak, yet again led by the meal market. The weather has been good on the surface with plenty of moisture received through key growing regions of the belt. We now are back at support in the beans at 950. The USDA will release a supply and demand tomorrow, then the acreage at the end of the month. …