Recent published studies indicate that the USDA is getting more reliable and accurate with September production and supply/demand estimates when compared with the final figures…………..Just another reason that the USDA should be respected and the report on Wednesday approached with respect and caution……………….. When compared with the August figures over the last twenty years the final corn production figures were …
Tasks at Hand
The USDA will issue new production and supply/demand estimates next Wednesday at 11:00 am Chicago time…………………Trade estimates are being released and it appears that the expectation is for the bean crop to be larger than the previous USDA estimate in August while the corn crop could be very close to the August estimate…………….Carry over projections in both domestic and international …
AG TIME – What is Going on?
The meal rallied today. The thought of Argentina putting an export tax on beans is pushing meal. This to me does not make sense. The US harvest is upon us and the size of the crop will allow Argentina, and any one else for that matter, to buy beans, import and crush for profit. The world is awash with a …
Harvest Approaches………Preliminary 9/5
It appears as if “Anything Goes” as we approach corn and bean harvest, wheat seeding, mid-term elections and new trade deals with Canada, China and others………………….We are a week away from the USDA Production and Supply/Demand estimates for conditions as of September 1 …………………. Some crop tours have suggested that the corn crop is close to the August USDA figure …
AG TIME – What are People Thinking?
The soy lower today. Moderately so. I don’t have a lot to say today. There is a lot baked in the cake. The US crop is finishing in a very positive light. It seems probable, based on private estimates, that the bean yield will increase from the last USDA report. This is significant as the SA planting is underway. The …
Getting into the Weeds!
The lack of deliveries of soft red wheat this morning could suggest that there is concern over the quality of the 2018/2019 harvest…………………..The CME contract is imperfect in the sense that millers fear receiving the 4 parts per million vomitoxin stocks at a 25 cent discount and not the FDA friendly grade of #2 SRW in order to make the …
AG TIME – Enjoy the Weekend
The markets in general (row crop) witnessed some strength. Nothing goes straight up or down. The bean market was due a bit of a bounce in my opinion. The sales remain strong given the discounts to South America. In addition, as I mentioned yesterday, the Argentinian currency situation and the Brazilian sales to date may force the Chinese back to …
End of the Month Positioning
In my opinion it just feels like a short covering bounce in corn and beans after the August slide as the weather still appears to be conducive for allowing the crop to get larger………….Crop tours are still reporting that yield potential may exceed the estimates the USDA issued in August. First notice day on the September futures tomorrow………. Wheat is …
AG TIME – Same Tunes Different Day
The soy down yet again. The commentary here sounds like the same tune over again. The weather has been good here towards the end of the growing season. The conditions are hanging at a high level even with an advanced crop. Will the government add bushels as the pro farmer crop tour saw? Remains to be seen. A saying “big …
It’s Time to Get to Work!
It’s time to get to work and get the corn and bean crops out of the field and into the bin, and/or other storage unit like ghost malls and parking lots! This is meant as humor yet emphasizes the creative ways that producers and warehousemen adapt!……….. I sense that we will have that “good” problem of having to put corn …