The soy under pressure led by meal. This may be the beginning of something. The meal has been the strongest part of the soy. This has driven oil share down to 30% and the crush margins near record price. The global landscape will shift from a tight meal market ( although I question this was ever the case), to a …
AG TIME – Who will blink?
The beans were under pressure yet again. The concern over the tariff situation continues. There are only 12 short hours till the implementation. Will someone blink. The psychology of this is the meaningful aspect. If the tariffs are put in place it will still be 2-3 months before they are finalized. It is still my belief that the actual implementation …
AG TIME – Do stocks to usage count any more?
The bean market down yet again. The weather remains fairly beneficial. The title here today is what I am attempting to figure out. It is my belief that the markets can act irrational for a period of time. It is also my belief that the markets ultimately are driven by the supply and demand. The stocks to usage ratio is …
AG TIME
The soy continues under pressure. The 6th is the deadline for China and the US. This whole scenario has shifted some scenarios into play. First the markets in my opinion are over supplied. Given the weather, the global carry, prices were due this break. Trump will play hard ball if China does not give on the trade imbalance. I really …
AG TIME – Good Things Coming
The beans traded both sides. Tomorrow is the USDA report. All the ex bulls now think the market can’t rebound due to the lack of dialogue with China. Perhaps they are correct. The market has broken a lot. I have expected that. I believe it may be the wrong time of year to press the short side. Don’t misunderstand – …
AG TIME
A two sided trade today in beans. The acreage is the next important aspect. The weather has been very ideal. Although it is important to note that the wet weather may be causing some concerns in some areas. This may be nothing in the long run. There is a suggestion of some heat coming in. This will be monitored closely. …
AG TIME – Bear on the Move
The soy was led lower by beans and meal today. After review of the USDA report yesterday. I must say that I was not bullish the bean numbers. To the contrary. I see some real potential mistakes. First, it is probable that the USDA has over stated the exports by 50-100 mil bu. I don’t buy the story the Chinese …
AG TIME
The soy was weak, yet again led by the meal market. The weather has been good on the surface with plenty of moisture received through key growing regions of the belt. We now are back at support in the beans at 950. The USDA will release a supply and demand tomorrow, then the acreage at the end of the month. …
AG TIME – Summer Market
The soy was down nominal again today. The bean exports are lagging. The Chinese are buying Brazilian. The real has moved into a position that makes it difficult to not sell into the export arena. All aspects are working against the beans at present. This trend should continue and can open the door for further declines. As I have stated, …
AG TIME OBJECTS IN MOTION
The soy complex witnessed liquidation. More than this though, the markets are looking at the fundamentals. The Chinese purchases, the currency differences, etc, etc, and saying this price may be way too high. The market I want to watch now is meal. Short term sells are here. The question now with this crush pace? How does meal do. I believe …