12/13/23
The Livestock and Grain Markets were all lower today, as they should be and are not finished yet. After three days of rallying, the Cattle markets ran out of steam, and headed lower today. February’24 Live Cattle slipped back down 1.375 today and settled at 167.225. Today’s settlement was just above today’s low of 176.175, and less than $5.00 from the 1-month and 52-week low of 162.400. Since 11/13 February’24 Live Cattle are down 7.725 or almost 4 ½%. January’24 Feeder Cattle gave back 1.875 today and settled at 217.375, just above today’s low of 216.925, and about $8.00 above the 1-month and 52-week low of 209.150. Since 11/13 January’24 Feeders are down 10.925 or almost 5%. February’24 Lean Hogs fell 1.525 today and settled at 66.725. Today’s settlement was just above the low today of 66.225 and only 0.425 above the 1-month and 52-week low of 65.800. Since 11/13 February’24 Lean Hogs are down 10.300 or more than 13%. The Grain Markets all broke over 1% today, and they are not done yet. The Soybean Market shot up 32 cents on Monday but is almost even for the week, after the break in Beans over the last two trading sessions. Today January’24 Soybeans dropped 16 ¼ cents and settled at 1307 ½. Today’s low in January’24 Soybeans was 1302 ½ and the 1-month low is 1292. Since 11/13 January’24 Soybeans are down 75 cents or almost 5 ½%. March’24 Corn was 5 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 479 ½, a couple cents above today’s low of 477 ½ and just nine cents above the 1-month and 52-week low of 470 ½. Since 11/13 March’24 Corn is down 13 ¼ or nearly 3%. The Wheat market broke the most today. March’24 Wheat dropped 20 ¼ cents today and settled at 605 ¼, that’s a break of over 3% today. The settlement in March’24 Wheat today was just above the low price of 602 ½. I hope you were able to capitalize on the Soybean spike up on Monday, as it was the was the perfect rally to lean into. As I said before, any new rains in Brazil, and the Beans will head straight down. Once again, I am Bearish the Cattle and Soybean Markets. I think the Cattle markets will break another 10% from here. I still feel that we will see $11.50 Soybeans this Summer or Fall. I still recommend hedging in July’24 Soybeans now. Today I structured July’24 Soybean Option trades and they were all expecting a break below $12.00. Call or email me if you would like to talk about the markets. There is always opportunity if you know where to look for it.
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Bill Allen
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